Will those updated delivery expectations have any implications for the Volkswagen valuation model? I noticed that your sales projections are now considerable more cautious compared to Volkswagens outlook of 9 million.
If you are correct revenue and profits should also be significantly weaker than the latest forecast by Volkswagen?
Yes, I have updated the valuation model in light of the new sales projections.
Ok cool, interesting that the difference is not so large. Maybe it would also be a good idea to add a line for deliveries to the Volkswagen model table in the Forum? This makes it easier to see instantly with which delivery forecast the numbers are associated with
Deliveries projections update
I recently updated my deliveries projections for Q4 2024, FY2024, and FY2025 as shown in the table below. My new projections consider the folllowing;
I=8
Porsche delivered 84,692 units (+9.3%) in Q4, much better than expected
https://www.eqs-news.com/news/corporate/porsche-delivers-310718-vehicles-in-2024/2199171
Looking at the calculations in google sheets it appears to me that we underestimated the positive impact from introduction of the macan ev. Are there any lessons to learn from it? Do we think the macan ev will drive sales also in the future or was this a one off good quarter as costumer waited for this car? Do we know how the macan ev did compared to expectations of management as of Q3 2024?
At the moment, I am not sure about how it will perform in the future. But now that a number of customers own it, reviews on the model will become more available and accurate.
The management had said in March 2024 that it received 10,000 preorders of the model four weeks since its launched and that they were overwhelmed, but since then, they havenāt given updates on preorders. During the recent earnings call, analysts were skeptical about the performance of the EV Macan and management couldnāt share order intake due to competitive reasons but said it remains robust except in China.
āThe E-Macan, what we hear in North America, Europe ā sorry, North America and China doesnāt look that great either,ā Analyst Patrick Hummel of UBS pointed out.
" I get the feeling itās maybe not as great as you wanted, but you shared until April some numbers on the order intake," Bofa analyst, Horst Schneider said.
Having a look at reviews now that it is out is a good plan. Given they had 10,000 preorders in March already the āsuccessā in this quarter might have been exactable and could be a one time effect
Yeah. In general, the mood for EVs is currently low, including at the company level. Recently, Porscheās management dialed back on the transition to EVs, suggesting that the performance of the EV Macan may be below expectations.
I=7
Audi delivered 435,718 units (-14.3% y/y) in Q4 2024, slightly less than our recent estimate
I=8
Volkswagen Group deliveries declined 0.8% y/y to 2,503,000 in Q4 2024, much better than our estimate of 2,322,006
Assessment
The fact that deliveries were in line with managementās guidance, signals the same trajectory for the earnings. It is also encouraging to see the Groupās BEV order in Western Europe being that high, especially as we enter 2025 when EU CO2 regulation will become stricter. However, since Volkswagen Group only introduced five new BEV models in 2024, I doubt if the growth of BEV deliveries in 2025 will be as high the order intake. As such, I will reiterate my estimates for the 2025 CO2 cost of 575 million euros. My estimate for BEV share in 2025 is 16.7%.
While we canāt know for sure why Brand Group Core significantly exceeded our estimate until the earnings, my initial guess is that there was better reception of the models launched in 2024 and more availability in markets outside Germany. T-Roc also moved to the 2nd position from position 7 (in 2023) in terms of popularity, so it must have been responsible for much of the outperformance, something which I hadnāt anticipated since I didnāt study the model.
I=7
Porsche delivered 71,470 units (-8%) in Q1, within the threshold set by the management
Assessment
Q1 was expected to be muted. Porsche stated in its Q4 2024 earnings call that a 10% decline in 2025 deliveries was unlikely. The reported 8% decline is within that threshold.
My recent estimate puts 2025 deliveries at 298,006 units, or an average of 74,501 units per quarter. Given that Q1 was expected to be the weakest quarter, the 71,470 units delivered is in line with my expectations.
Itās encouraging to see the EV Macan performing well and Taycan deliveries stabilizing. However, weaker 911 deliveries are a concern-especially since Porsche is relying on that model to support pricing.
Additionally, Q1 delivery growth was driven by North America, which raises concerns. If new tariffs take effect, they could significantly impact performance in future quarters. Porsche imports all vehicles sold in the U.S. from Europe and is facing an headwind of ā¬1.2 billion (worst case: ā¬2.0 billion) from the tariffs in 2025. The 718 model which is partly responsible for the drop in Europe and Germany deliveries, is not expected to arrive until the end of 2025.
Overall, the numbers were in line with expectations. However, the current dependence on North America increases downside risk.
Good overview.
Just two small improvement suggestions.
Deliveries were strong in North America (+37%) and weaker in China (-42%) and Germany (-34%).
If new tariffs take effect, they could significantly impact performance in future quarters.
Standard elements like those (absolut numbers, reminders) and their importance should be captured into our guidebooks so that we are consistenly building knowledge of how to work and structure things in the best possible way.
Volkswagen Q1 deliveries rose 1.4% y/y, better than managementās estimate
Assessment
Itās good to see the share of BEVs in Western Europe picking up considerably. At this rate, Volkswagen could meet- or slightly miss (as guided by management) its 2025 CO2 target. Based on my estimates, Volkswagen Group would need to attain a BEV share of 24.2% in 2025 to meet its CO2 target.
