Volkswagen Deliveries

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Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 16.03% year over year in May 2023 to 763,800 vehicles(May 2022: -23.48% y/y).

Read more here: Volkswagen:Deliveries/FY2023 - InvestmentWiki.

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  • Volkswagen Group deliveries rose by 5.7% year-over-year in June to 847,600 vehicles (June 2022: -6.3%).

  • All the markets saw positive growth in June except China whose deliveries declined by 14.5% year-over-year to 291,400 vehicles( June 2022: +27.2%).

  • Deliveries in June were still below the pre-pandemic level(June 2019: 974,400 vehicles).

  • For Q2, deliveries grew by 18% year-over-year to 2,331,600 vehicles(Q2 2022: -22.4%).

  • In Q2, all the markets saw positive growth, led by Central and Eastern Europe(+31.5%) and followed by Western Europe(+27%)

  • Premium group brand grew the fastest (+22.4%) during the quarter, followed by Traton(+20.3%).

    Volkswagen:Deliveries/FY2023 - InvestmentWiki

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SI=0%, I=7

  • Volkswagen deliveries grew by 6.6% y/y in July to 773,400 vehicles(July 2022: flat growth)
  • China deliveries declined by 10.2% y/y to 260,400 vehicles(July 2022: +21.7%).
  • Western Europe saw the largest growth in deliveries(+21.4%).
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Is there any way for us to compare deliveries with expectations and track how much they are in-line with targets?

It would be very interesting if we would come of with ways to project how much cars they will be delivering this year based on seasonal trends, past performances and the current macro environment.

My current guess is that they will reach their lowered 9-9.5million car target.

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I also think they will given that H2 2022 deliveries were above 700k monthly on average and the fact that Volkswagen expects logistics bottlenecks to ease in H2 2023.

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  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 5.7% year-over-year to 740,100 vehicles (August 2022: +12.7%).
  • Deliveries to China declined by 6.5% year-over-year to 278,000 vehicles (August 2022: +24.8%).
  • Deliveries to Western Europe rose by 21.1% year-over-year to 231,900 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to August now stands at 5.9 million vehicles, which means the company has to deliver an average of 775,000 vehicles in the remaining four months to hit the lower range target of 9 million to 9.5 million vehicles in 2023. The average monthly deliveries from September to December 2022 was 778,175 vehicles.
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  • Porsche told analysts that sales in the third quarter was “robust” while pricing were “intact”.
  • Deliveries in July and August were low due to the introduction of new version of Cayenne, but improved towards the end of the quarter as availability of this model improved.
  • Porsche expect sales in the third quarter to be at the same level as last year (75,700).
  • That would mean September deliveries will grow by 9% y/y to 27,300.
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  • Volkswagen group deliveries grew by 9.9% year-over-year in September to 830,600 vehicles (September 2022: +21%).
  • Deliveries to China was down 1% year-over-year to 298,800 vehicles (September 2022: +34%).
  • In Q3, Volkswagen Group deliveries rose 7.4% y/y to 2.3 million vehicles (Q3 2022: +10.6%)
  • In Q3, China deliveries fell 6% y/y to 837,200 vehicles while Western Europe deliveries grew 21% y/y.
  • Deliveries for January to September stands at 6.7 million, around 2.3 million short of the lower-end target for the full year.
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I=7

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 10.7% y/y to 765,500 vehicles in October ( October 2022: 691,800 or +15.1% y/y).
  • All regions saw growth in deliveries, with Western Europe deliveries growing by 11.3% y/y to 255,300- the lowest growth since August 2022 probably due to the impact of flooding in Slovenia, and China deliveries growing 5.1% y/y to 276,800 units.
  • Volkswagen Passenger car deliveries grew by 6.6% y/y to 414,100 units, one of the best growth rates in the year despite impact of Slovenia flood, while Audi deliveries grew by 15.6% y/y to 152,400 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to October stands at 7,481,300.

My take;
Assuming the 11.86% y/y average growth rate in the first 10 months of 2023 continue in November and December, Volkswagen will deliver 9,175,532 units (guidance 9-9.5million). Assuming no growth, Volkswagen will deliver 9 million units. However, the declining production of EVs due to lack of electric motors could impact deliveries in the current quarter though BEVs represented only 9% in Q3 2023.

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I=8

  • Volkswagen deliveries rose by 22.6% year-over-year to 824,300 vehicles in November, exceeding my forecast of 752,035 vehicles (+11.9% y/y).
  • All the major markets saw positive growth with China deliveries growing by 32.4% year-over-year to 296,100 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to November now stands at 8,305,200 vehicles.

Assessment
Assuming the 12.83% y/y average growth rate in the first 11 months of 2023 will continue in December, Volkswagen will deliver 950,367 and 9,255,5677 units (guidance 9-9.5million) in December and 2023, respectively. Assuming no growth in December, Volkswagen will deliver 9,147,500 units in 2023. It’s good that Volkswagen’s China deliveries grew more than the overall car sales (25%) in China during the month.

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I=7

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries rose by 12% to 9.24 million vehicles in 2023, slightly below my estimate of 9.25 million vehicles but exceeding management lower guidance (9 million) by 2.7%.
  • That means deliveries in December were around 930,000, below my estimate of 950,367.
  • Delivery of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) rose by 35% to 0.77 million while their share of total deliveries increased to 8.3% from 6.9%.
  • Detailed figures are expected on Friday.

https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/903/file/5fda2d863559c1beca1e74bc7762be3740f2fde4/20240109_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1704798137

  • During the release of delivery numbers for the Volkswagen Brand, its head of sales and marketing said they expect 2024 to remain challenging.

    “The delivery figures show that we are on the right track as a brand and that our cars are well received by our customers. We expect the market environment to remain challenging in 2024. But with our revised and attractive product portfolio, we are in the right position,” Imelda LabbĂ©, Volkswagen Board Member for Sales, Marketing and After Sales said.

Assessment
I would say it’s still good that Volkswagen’s delivery numbers in December came close to my estimates despite supply chain bottlenecks experienced by its EV brands during the month.

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Great to see that we have been close with our predictions!

Do we already have a delivery guidance for 2024 or are we only getting this in the next months with the FY report? Once we get it, we should think about our take on the market and what we think is the most likely outcome.

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They haven’t given the 2024 delivery guidance yet.

Yeah, they will probably give it in their FY 2023 report.

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  • According to Hildegard Wortmann, member of Volkswagen Extended Executive Committee, Volkswagen grew faster than the overall market in 2023.

    "That is a solid performance given the geopolitical and economic framework. We thus grew faster than the total market and slightly extended our global market share, " She wrote in a Linkedin post [1].

  • However, Volkswagen underperformed the overall China market. Its deliveries to Chinese customers rose by 1.6% to 3.24 million in 2023 versus 5.6% overall market growth reported by China Passenger Car Association. Sales of its EVs in China rose by 23% to 191,800 compared to 36% growth in the overall China EV market [2].

    “With our ‘in China for China’ strategy, we are tailoring our portfolio to the needs of Chinese customers. The success of this strong roadmap is reflected in our robust position despite a challenging market. While the situation will remain demanding over the next two years, we are further developing our technological capabilities and setting up our business for the future,” Ralf BrandstĂ€tter, CEO Volkswagen China said.

    “It is not all about market share. Profitability continues to be our top priority. In recent months, Volkswagen has identified and implemented cost optimisations for its fully electric vehicles in China, to strengthen the competitiveness of our products. We will not push ahead to grow at any cost in this highly competitive environment. We are focusing on investments for the next leap in innovation instead.” [3]

  • Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicates that the market share of VW’s joint ventures in China (FAW and SAIC) declined to 14.2% in 2023 from 14.8% in 2022 [4].

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I=6

  • Volkswagen Passenger Cars said it doesnt expect the Red Sea attacks to lead to any significant restrictions on production.

    “Volkswagen is in close coordination with the shipping companies and is monitoring the situation closely in order to assess the impact on production and market supply and - as far as possible - avoid it,” a spokesperson said told Reuters.

    “Almost all the major shipping companies began rerouting their ships in December already. This will ensure that freight reaches its destination, albeit with a slight delay,” they added.

  • The statement comes after Tesla said it will suspend production in its Berlin plant from Jan. 29 to Feb. 11 due to lack of components.
  • S&P Market Intelligence data, 67% of EV battery components imported in Europe came from Asia.
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  • Audi is reducing production at its Brussels plant for at least two weeks starting from February 5 due to component shortages, AutomobileWoche reported citing a company spokesperson.
  • The decision will be decided week by week and further production cuts are likely [1].
  • The Brussels plant which produced 50,302 [2] all-electric vehicles in 2022 manufactures Audi Q8 e-tron and the Audi Q8 e-tron Sportback [3].
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I=7

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries rose 13.3% y/y in January to 698,200 vehicles (January 2022: 616,200 or -11.9%).
  • China deliveries rose 43.3% y/y to 290,900 vehicles (January 2022: 203,100 or -40.7%) while Western Europe deliveries declined by 3% y/y to 224,600 (January 2022: 231,400 or +20.2%).

Assessment

The sharp rise in Volkswagen China deliveries was probably due to the weak comparison associated with last year’s Chinese New Year celebrations which fell on January. Still, Volkswagen underpermed the China market growth rate of 58% in January.

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I=3

  • Volkswagen to recall around 261,000 vehicles in U.S due to issues with the suction jet pump seal inside the fuel tank, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said.
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I=5, February 14, 2024

  • Around 1,000 Porsche sport cars and SUVs, 700 Bentleys and thousands of Audi vehicles are stucked in U.S ports after being denied entry by customs officials for having a Chinese component.
  • Volkswagen said the issue will be resolved by the end of March.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/some-volkswagen-cars-delayed-us-ports-over-chinese-part-2024-02-14/

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I=7

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries fell by 1.1% y/y to 698,200 in February, hit by a sharp decrease in China.
  • China deliveries declined 16.3% y/y to 290,900 while deliveries to Western Europe rose by 5.6% y/y to 224,600, an improvement from -3% in January.
  • However, in the first two months of 2024, total deliveries are up 6.1% to 1.30 million.
  • Among the major brands, Audi saw the highest decline of 13.4% y/y to 108,400, probably due to the supply chain problems highlighted by the company in their recent earnings call.

https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Volkswagen:Deliveries/FY2024

Assessment

It’s good to see the overall growth rate (+6.1%) in the first two months exceeding the management’s overall guidance of 3% for 2024.

It is also good that Volkswagen ouperformed the overall market growth rate in China (-21%) this time round.

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