Valuation model update
Following my update on deliveries projections, I have adjusted the valuation model forecasts as shown in the table below. The new projections also consider the recently announced cost-cut measures at the Volkswagen brand. While it’s unclear what they refer by the “medium term”, there are reports signaling that most of the cost benefit will come from 2027. As such, my 2025 projections only consider cost-savings of only 500 million euros (guestimate).
Management guidance:
2024 revenue: €320 billion (-0.7% y/y)
2024 operating return on sales: 5.6%
Q4 2024 revenue: €82.7 billion (-5.1%)