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Porsche Q2 2025 deliveries fell 4.3% y/y to 74,921 units, in line with my expectations
- Porsche Q2 2025 deliveries fell 4.3% y/y to 74,921 units (calculated).
- Macan deliveries rose 16% y/y to 21,582 (Q1 2025: +14.5% y/y).
- 911 sports car deliveries fell 7% y/y to 14,218, driven by strong final sales of the old model last year and staggered launch of the new derivatives (Q1 2025: -12% y/y).
- Cayenne deliveries fell 18% y/y to 21,818 due to catch-up effects (Q2 2024 deliveries were inflated by backlog associated with product revamp).
- North America deliveries fell 6.5% y/y to 22,879 in Q2 2025, China deliveries were down 10.4% to 11,831, Europe deliveries fell 6.5% to 17,364 while Germany deliveries were down 11.1% to 8,478.
Assessment
At 146,391 deliveries in H1 2025, Porsche is on track to meet my estimate of 298,000 units in 2025 (average of 74,501 units per quarter). However, Q2 North America deliveries were supported by price protection associated with import tariffs. Moving forward, Porsche may not continue to provide price protection, leading to a stronger decline in North America deliveries in H2 2025. This could be slightly offset by more availability of the 911 variants and the introduction of the 718 electric in Europe in Q4 2025. 718 model was phased out in Europe in July last year.
Porsche imports all vehicles sold in the U.S. from Europe and is facing an headwind of €1.2 billion (worst case: €2.0 billion) from the tariffs in 2025.
Overall, Q2 deliveries were in line with my expectations, supported by price protection linked to import tariffs. However, the impact of U.S. import tariffs may become more pronounced in the coming quarters, as no further price protection is expected.