My new estimate is a weighted headwind of €3.4 billion (worst case scenario: €6.2 billion). This is lower than my earlier estimate of €4.4 billion, because I now assume the tariff will also impact sales, not just margins.
Given that Volkswagen imports around 78% of its U.S. sales and has limited local production capacity (only 175,000 units), I expect the profit tailwind from U.S. production to be negligible.