Following analyst earnings expectations for the S&P 500 is critical for investors and macroeconomic analysts because these expectations shape market sentiment, impact asset pricing, and provide forward-looking insights into corporate health and economic conditions.
Despite the Recent Market Sell Off analysts are still expecting Solid Earnings Growth for 2025
This could be both positive, but a risk at the same time. Earnings growth expectations continue to be high, any continuing readjustment or revision could continue to fuel the market sell-off.
Q1 2025 will be crucial.
- Earnings expected at 10.7%, revised down from 14% at the beginning of the year
- EPS at 270, a 11% growth rate
The forward 12m P/E has compressed from 22.5x to 20.5x (a 9% contraction), while forward 12m EPS estimates have actually ticked higher.
https://x.com/LizThomasStrat/status/1899179716935835815/photo/1
Goldman cuts 2025 SPX forecast to 6200 from 6500 as they cut EPS est’s to $262 from $268 (vs Wall St consensus of $270)
- They said every 10-percentage-point tariff-rate increase they find reduces S&P 500 earnings by 1% to 2%.
- Outlook for slower growth suggests lower valuations on a more sustained basis
