Producer Price Index (PPI)

Macroeconomics and Politics
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This topic will be used to discuss PPI data releases and developments during the month that could give us indication about inflation trend.

See also: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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I=6

  • August producer price index(PPI) rose 0.7% from a month earlier, exceeding estimate for a 0.4% increase.
  • Yearly, PPI rose 1.6%, also exceeding estimate for a 1.2% rise.
  • Core PPI increased 0.2%, in-line with the estimate.
  • Year-over-year, core PPI rose 2.2%, also in-line with the estimate.
  • The increase in PPI was mainly attributed to energy prices which rose 10.5% in August(July:+0.8%).
  • The prices for final demand goods rose 2% on the month while services prices rose 0.2%.
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3

SI=0%, I=7

  • September producer price index(PPI) rose 0.5% from a month earlier, exceeding estimate for a 0.3% increase.
  • Yearly, PPI rose 2.2%, also exceeding estimate for a 1.6% rise and August’s 2.0% (revised up from 1.6%).
  • Core PPI rose 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.
  • The increase in PPE came mainly from final demand goods, which rose 0.9% on the month.
  • Services grew 0.3% in September.
  • The rise in goods prices was mainly contributed by gasoline prices, which rose 5.4%.
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4

Big miss on this one, since PPI is supposed to be leading CPI, is honestly not that good

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5

I=8

  • October producer price index(PPI) fell 0.5%, the largest decrease since April and compared to +0.1% estimate and 0.4% growth in September (revised down from 0.5%).
  • Yearly, PPI rose 1.3%, below 1.9% estimate and lower than 2.2% in September.
  • Core PPI was flat month-over-month versus +0.3% estimate.
  • Yearly, core PPI rose 2.4%, below +2.7% estimate.
  • Over 80% of the decline in headline PPI was due to a 15.3% drop in the price of gasoline.
  • Services costs were flat month-over-month after rising for six consecutive months.
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6

I=6

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in November as was expected.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9%, lower than 1.0% estimate and 1.2% in October (revised down from 1.3%).
  • Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
  • Yearly, core PPI rose 2%, lower than 2.2% estimate.
  • Services index was unchanged in November, the same as in October.
  • Energy prices fell 1.2% in November.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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7

Soft report for PPI.

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% m/m, 0.1% was expected
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1%, lower than 1.3% estimate but higher than 0.8% in November (revised down from 0.9%).
  • Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
  • Yearly, core PPI rose 1.8%, lower than 1.9% estimate.
  • Services index was unchanged in December, the same as in November
  • Energy prices fell 1.2% in December

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

PPI is usually not that important for the market, but after today’s miss print, the market is now giving a higher probability of 7 cuts in 2024.

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I=7

  • Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in January, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% increase.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9% above 0.6% estimate but lower than December’s 1%.
  • Core PPI grew 0.5%, above 0.1% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.6% estimate.
  • Services index rose 0.6%, the highest since July 2023.
  • Energy prices fell 1.7% in January.
  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% following the report while Dow Jones futures were down 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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9

All the January inflation numbers are kind of concerning tbh, if they continue on this path, I don’t see how the FED can even afford to cut rates anytime soon.
However, I remain skeptical of only trusting 1 month of data as always.

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Yesterday, import prices also came in way above expectations 0.8% vs 0.0% expected.

Only PCE is missing, which at the same time is the one the FED focuses on the more.

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10

I=7

  • Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1.6%, above 1.2% estimate.
  • Core PPI grew 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.9% estimate.
  • Services index rose 0.3% versus 0.5% increase in January.
  • Energy prices rose 4.4% after a decline of 1.1% in January.
  • S&P 500 futures rose despite the inflation coming above estimates- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% while Dow Jones futures were up 0.3%.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03142024.pdf

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11

PPI continues to be on an upside trend, 2.1% in March vs 1.6% in February, still in relatively low levels, but it could influence goods CPI which is still negative.
At least numbers came somewhat softer m/m compared to last month.

  • Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in March, below 0.3% expectations
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 2.1%, below 2.2% estimate.
  • Core PPI grew 0.2%, in line with 0.2% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2.4% higher than the 2.3% estimate.
  • Services index rose 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in January.
  • Energy prices decline -1.6% m/m after a 4.1%m/m increase in February.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

PPI Y_Y
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12

I=7

  • Producer price index rose 0.5% in April, higher than 0.3% estimate and -0.1% in March (revised down from 0.2%).
  • Core PPI increased by 0.5%, also exceeding 0.2% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 2.2% in-line with the estimate but above 1.8% in March (revised down from 2.1%).
  • Core PPI increased by 2.4% on a yearly basis, in-line with the estimate but higher than 2.1% in March (revised down from 2.4%).
  • Service inflation accounted for about three-quarters of the headline gain, rising by 0.6% in April-the biggest monthly gain since July 2023.
  • Energy index rose 2% in April after declining by 1.3% in March.
  • S&P 500 futures declined by 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.4% following the report.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_05142024.pdf

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The hotter-than-expected prints are offset by the revisions down revisions to the prior month, which is probably why the markets barely reacted today to it.

Still, Y/Y and 6M annu data continue to move higher. Still relatively low, would not matter at all if CPI services were not that high still, since a lot of the help for inflation until now has been on goods inflation.

PPI 6M
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PPI Y_Y
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Contributions

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14

I=7

  • Producer price index fell 0.2% in May versus growth of 0.5% in April and against
    expectations for a 0.1% increase.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 2.2%, lower-than 2.5% estimate and growth of 2.3% in the previous month (revised up from 2.2%).
  • Core PPI was flat during the month (April:+0.5%) and up 2.3% on a yearly basis, both coming below expectations for a 0.3% and 2.5% increase.
  • The decline in PPI is mainly attributed to the 0.8% drop in the prices for final demand goods.
  • Around 60% decline in the price for final demand goods is attributed to a 7.1% drop in the prices for gasoline (April:+5%).
  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7% while Dow Jones futures were down 0.2% following the report.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_06132024.pdf

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June 2024 PPI came in higher than estimates

Based on PPI and CPI yesterday, there are now estimates of Core PCE to rise only by about 0.1%.

  • PPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.1% vs -0.03% in May
  • PPI 2.6% YoY, Exp. 2.4% vs 2.3% in May
  • PPI Core 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.2% vs 0.3% in May
  • PPI Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 2.5% vs 2.6% in May
  • Prices for final demand services rose 0.6 percent in June after moving up
    0.3 percent in May. Nearly all the June increase is attributable to a 1.9-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services
  • Prices for final demand goods moved down 0.5 percent in June after falling
    0.8 percent in May. Most of the June decrease is attributable to a 2.6-percent drop in the index for final demand energy.

PPI was disappointing but is always highly volatile. The Y/Y and 6M trend have been slowly increasing.

PPI Y_Y
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PPI 6M
PPI 6M1859×835 105 KB

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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16

I=7

  • Core PPI was flat during the month, down from 0.3% in June (revised downwards from 0.4%) and against expectations for a 0.2% increase.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 2.4%, lower-than 3% in June and 2.7% estimate.
  • Producer price index (PPI) rose 0.1% in July versus expectations to stay flat at 0.2%.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 2.2%, down from 2.7% in June (revised upwards from 2.6%) and below 2.3% estimate.
  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.9% while Dow Jones futures added 0.3% following the report.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132024.pdf

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17

I=6
August headline PPI came in less than expected, Core PPI was slightly hotter than estimate

  • Core PPI rose 0.3% in August, above 0.2% estimate and compared to -0.2% in July (revised downwards from 0.0%).
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 2.4%, lower than 2.5% estimate and compared to 2.3% in July (revised downwards from 2.4%).
  • Headline PPI was up 0.2% on the month, above 0.1% estimate and compared to flat growth in July (revised downwards from 0.1%).
  • Year over year, headline PPI increased by 1.7%, below 1.8% estimate and compared to 2.1% in the previous month (revised downwards from 2.2%).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09122024.pdf

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18

I=6
Headline PPI was flat in September and core PPI rose by 0.2%, both below expectations and down from August

  • Core PPI rose 0.2% in September, in line with the forecast but down from 0.3% in August.
  • On an annual basis, core PPI was up 2.8%, above 2.7% estimate and up from 2.6% in August (revised upwards from 2.4%).
  • Headline PPI was flat in September, against expectations for a 0.1% increase and down from 0.2% in August.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 1.8%, exceeding 1.6% estimate and down from 1.9% in August (revised up from 1.7%).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_10112024.pdf

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19

I=6
Core PPI and headline PPI met expectations in September but exceeded estimates on a yearly basis

  • Core PPI rose 0.3% in October, in-line with the forecast but up from 0.2% in September.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 3.1%, above 3.0% estimate and 2.9% in September (revised upwards from 2.8%).
  • Headline PPI grew 0.2% in October, in-line with the estimate but up from 0.1% in September (revised upwards from 0.0%).
  • On a yearly basis, headline PPI rose 2.4%, exceeding 2.3% estimate and 1.9% in September (revised upwards from 1.8%).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_11142024.pdf

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20

I=6
Headline PPI rose 0.4% in November, exceeding 0.2% estimate

  • Core PPI rose 0.2% in November, down from 0.3% in October but in line with the forecast.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI grew 3.4%, unchanged from the previous month (revised upwards from 3.1%) but above the 3.2% estimate.
  • Headline PPI was up 0.4% on the month, exceeding 0.2% estimate and up from 0.3% in October (revised upwards from 0.2%).
  • Headline PPI rose 3.0% during the month, against expectations for it to remain unchanged at 2.6% (revised upwards from 2.4%).
  • S&P 500 futures shed 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.6% following the report.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_12122024.pdf

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