Producer Price Index (PPI)

Macroeconomics, Industries and Politics
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21

I=6
Headline PPI rose 0.2% in December, less than 0.4% estimate

  • Core PPI was flat in December versus 0.3% forecast and 0.2% growth in November.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 3.5%, below 3.8% estimate and unchanged from the previous month (revised upwards from 3.4%).
  • Headline PPI rose 0.2% during the month versus expectations to stay unchanged at 0.4%.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 3.3%, lower than 3.5% estimate but above 3.0% in November.
  • S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5% each while Dow Jones futures rose 0.4% following the report.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.pdf

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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
22

I=6
Headline PPI rose 0.4% in January, higher than 0.3% estimate

  • Core PPI rose 0.3% in January, in line with the forecast and down from 0.4% in December (revised up from 0.0%).
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 3.6%, below 3.3% forecast and down from 3.7% in December (revised up from 3.5%).
  • Headline PPI was up 0.4% on the month, higher than 0.3% estimate but down from 0.5% in December (revised up from
    0.2%)
  • On a yearly basis, headline PPI rose 3.5%, above 3.2% estimate and unchanged from December (revised up from 3.3%).
  • PPI growth was driven by services as usual.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_02132025.pdf

23

I=7
Producer price index was flat in February, below 0.3% estimate

  • Headline PPI was flat during the month of February, below 0.3% forecast and down from 0.6% (revised upwards from 0.3%) in January.
  • Core PPI fell 0.1%, against expectations for a 0.3% increase and below 0.5% growth (revised upwards from 0.3%) in January.
  • On a yearly basis, headline PPI rose 3.2%, below 3.3% estimate and 3.7% growth (revised upwards from 3.5%) in January.
  • Core PPI was up 3.4% on a yearly basis, lower than 3.6% forecast and down from 3.8% in the previous month (revised upwards from 3.6%).
  • The flat growth was driven by a 0.2% drop in service costs which offsetted a 0.3% increase in goods.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03132025.pdf

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24

I=7
S&P 500 futures sheds 0.4% after PPI rose 0.9% in July, exceeding 0.2% estimate

  • Headline PPI and core PPI rose 0.9% in July (highest reading in more than 3 years), above 0.2% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 3.3%, above 2.5% estimate and 2.4% in June (revised upwards from 2.3%).
  • Core PPI rose 3.7% y/y, above 2.9% estimate and 2.6% in June.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 future shed 0.4% following the report.
  • The increase was driven by service costs which rose 1.1%, the most since March 2022.
  • The report indicates that companies are starting to adjust prices to reflect the higher US tariffs.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08142025.pdf

1 Like
25

I=7
Stock futures rose more than 0.5% after PPI fell 0.1% in August, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase

  • Headline and core PPI fell 0.1% in August against 0.3% forecast and below 0.7% growth in July (revised downwards from 0.9%).

  • On a yearly basis, headline PPI was up 2.6% y/y, below 3.3% forecast and 3.1% in July (revised downwards from 3.3%).

  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 2.8% y/y, below 3.5% forecast and 3.4% in July (revised downwards from 3.7%).

  • S&P 500 futures rose0.5% while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6% after the release.

  • The report suggests that companies are avoiding outsize price increases despite Trump’s tariffs.

  • Services prices fell 0.2%.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102025.pdf

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26

I=8
Stock futures shed 0.8%+ as producer price index comes above estimates

  • Core PPI rose 0.8% in January, above 0.3% estimate and 0.6% gain in December.
  • Headline PPI rose 0.5%, above 0.3% estimate and 0.4% gain in December.
  • Services prices was the main driver, rising 0.8% in January, the highest since July 2025.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively following the inflation report.
  • Alot of the things that feed into the PCE (fed’s preferred inflation gauge) were up such as portfolio management (+1.5%) and international air fares (+4.3%).

https://share.google/EDoQv48dVsVt5ERGJ

27

What’s the main contributor(s) of why it’s up so strongly? Is this some normal monthly volatility or something that stands out?

You have accidentally linked the August release :wink:

28

Most of the January increase can be traced to margins for trade services (category that measures profit margins for wholesalers and retailers), which rose 2.5%. Analysts think this could indicate tariffs are being passed through along the supply chain. However, this metric can be highly volatile on a monthly basis.

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29

I=7
Stock futures shed more than 0.4% as producer price index rose 0.7% in February, above 0.3% estimate

  • Producer price index rose 0.7% in February (before Iran conflict), above 0.3% estimate and 0.5% in January.

  • Core PPI rose 0.5% on the month, above 0.3% forecast but down from 0.8% in January.

  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 3.4% whilre core PPI rose 3.9%, above 3.0% and 3.7% estimates respectively.

  • A 0.5% rise in services (versus +0.8% in January) accounted for more than half of the increase in the monthly PPI (lifted by 5.7% jump in wholesale prices of hotel and motel rooms).

  • Trade services costs, a proxy for profit margins (and used to track impact of tariffs), rose at a more moderate 0.4% in February versus +2.5% in January and 1.8% in December.

  • The report comes ahead of today’s Fed interest rate decision, where the fed is largely expected to keep interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

30

I=6
Producer price index rose 0.5% in March, below 1.1% estimate

  • Producer price index rose 0.5% in March, below 1.1% estimate - despite the impact of Iran conflict but driven by energy prices.
  • Core PPI rose 0.1%, below 0.5% estimate.
  • On a yearly basis, PPI rose 4%, below 4.6% forecast and the biggest gain since February 2023.
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 3.8%, below 4.2% estimate and unchanged from the prior month.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

31

I=8
Wholesale inflation rose 1.4% in April, above the 0.5% forecast, driven by higher energy prices

  • Producer price index (PPI) rose 1.4% in April, higher than 0.5% estimate and up from 0.7% in March (revised upwards from 0.5%).
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 6%, above 4.9% estimate and up from 4.3% in March (revised upwards from 4.0%).
  • Core PPI rose 1.0% on the month, higher than 0.3% forecast and compared to 0.2% in March (revised upwards from 0.1%).
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI rose 5.2%, above 4.3% estimate and up from 4.0% in March (revised upwards from 3.8%).
  • A 15.6% increase in gas prices accounted for 40% of the increase in PPI.
  • S&P 500 sheds 0.2% following the report.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

U.S. Stock Market Developments
32

I=6
Wholesale inflation rose 1.1% in May, above the 0.7% forecast, driven by higher energy prices but core PPI was below estimate

  • Producer price index (PPI) rose 1.1% in May, higher than 0.7% estimate and unchanged from the previous month (revised downwards from 1.4%).
  • On a yearly basis, PPI was up 6.5%, above 6.4% estimate and up from 5.7% in April (revised downwards from 6.0%).
  • Core PPI rose 0.4% on the month, lower than 0.5% forecast and compared to 0.7% in April(revised upwards from 1.0%).
  • On a yearly basis, core PPI was steady at 4.9%, below 5.4% forecast.
  • Much of the monthly increase in headline PPI was due to the 7.5% increase in energy prices.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm