I=7
Porsche delivered 71,470 units (-8%) in Q1, within the threshold set by the management
- Porsche Q1 2025 deliveries fell 8% y/y to 71,470 units.
- Macan was handed over to 23,555 customers (+14% y/y).
- 911 sports car deliveries fell 12% y/y to 11,390, driven by strong final sales of the old model last year and staggered launch of the new derivatives.
- Taycan deliveries fell 1% to 4,203 units.
- Deliveries were strong in North America (+37% to 20,698), but weaker in China (-42% to 9,471) and Germany (-34% to 7,495).
Assessment
Q1 was expected to be muted. Porsche stated in its Q4 2024 earnings call that a 10% decline in 2025 deliveries was unlikely. The reported 8% decline is within that threshold.
My recent estimate puts 2025 deliveries at 298,006 units, or an average of 74,501 units per quarter. Given that Q1 was expected to be the weakest quarter, the 71,470 units delivered is in line with my expectations.
It’s encouraging to see the EV Macan performing well and Taycan deliveries stabilizing. However, weaker 911 deliveries are a concern-especially since Porsche is relying on that model to support pricing.
Additionally, Q1 delivery growth was driven by North America, which raises concerns. If new tariffs take effect, they could significantly impact performance in future quarters. Porsche imports all vehicles sold in the U.S. from Europe and is facing an headwind of €1.2 billion (worst case: €2.0 billion) from the tariffs in 2025. The 718 model which is partly responsible for the drop in Europe and Germany deliveries, is not expected to arrive until the end of 2025.
Overall, the numbers were in line with expectations. However, the current dependence on North America increases downside risk.