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Volkswagen Group deliveries declined 0.8% y/y to 2,503,000 in Q4 2024, much better than our estimate of 2,322,006
- Volkswagen Group deliveries declined 0.8% y/y to 2,503,000 in Q4 2024, much better than our estimate of 2,322,006, mainly boosted by Brand Group Core deliveries which rose 2.4% to 1,888,400 (our estimate: 1,724,098).
- Volkswagen Group 2024 deliveries fell 2.3% y/y to 9,027,400, in line with management’s guidance.
- Its BEV share in Europe stood at 11.9% at the end of 2024, down from 12.5% in 2023.
- Its BEV order intake in Western Europe is up 88% y/y to 170,000 units, partly driven by new models such as the EV Macan, VW ID.7 Tourer, and Audi Q6 e-tron.
Assessment
The fact that deliveries were in line with management’s guidance, signals the same trajectory for the earnings. It is also encouraging to see the Group’s BEV order in Western Europe being that high, especially as we enter 2025 when EU CO2 regulation will become stricter. However, since Volkswagen Group only introduced five new BEV models in 2024, I doubt if the growth of BEV deliveries in 2025 will be as high the order intake. As such, I will reiterate my estimates for the 2025 CO2 cost of 575 million euros. My estimate for BEV share in 2025 is 16.7%.
While we can’t know for sure why Brand Group Core significantly exceeded our estimate until the earnings, my initial guess is that there was better reception of the models launched in 2024 and more availability in markets outside Germany. T-Roc also moved to the 2nd position from position 7 (in 2023) in terms of popularity, so it must have been responsible for much of the outperformance, something which I hadn’t anticipated since I didn’t study the model.