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Volkswagen Group deliveries were were down 3.8% in Q2, full-year guidance reiterated
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Volkswagen Group Q2 deliveries fell by 3.8% y/y to 2.2 million units driven mostly by Audi (-11.3%) and Porsche (-9.6%), Q1 deliveries were up by 3.1% y/y to 2.1 million units.
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In H1, deliveries were flat (-0.6%) at 4.4 million units.
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The company reiterated its guidance for a slight increase in deliveries in 2024.
"For the full year 2024, we continue to expect a slight increase in global deliveries compared to the previous year due to the launch and ramp-up of numerous important models in the second half of the year.”
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Deliveries to Chinese customers fell by 7.4% and 19.3% y/y to 1.3 million and 651,500 units in the first half and Q2 respectively while deliveries at Western Europe (H1: +2.3%) and North America were stable (H1: +7.9%).
Assessment
In the past two years, deliveries in the second half have been better than in the first half by around 400,000 units. That means Volkswagen Group’s unit sales in 2024 could easily end up being flat compared to 2023, in-line with my most recent projections. However, the significant deceleration in Q2 compared to Q1 makes the second-half bleak, particularly for Porsche and Audi.
To meet the management’s growth guidance of 1.5% (at the midpoint), Volkswagen would need to see significant improvement in the second half (addition of around 540,000 units over the first half deliveries). I think the possibility of this happening is minimal.
Therefore, I have slightly adjusted my deliveries estimates for 2024 and 2025 to reflect my reduced confidence over Audi’s and Porsche’s ability to compensate for weak sales in the first-half as follows;
