Porsche deliveries fell by 7% in the first-half of 2024
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- Porsche deliveries fell by 7% to 155,945 units in the first-half of 2024, impacted by the transition to new models and tough economic conditions in China.
- China deliveries were down 33% to 29,551 units.
Assessment
Deliveries only grew by 1% quarter-over-quarter with deliveries of Panamera and Taycan rising by 16% and 9%, respectively. Porsche didn’t give their Q2 or 2024 deliveries outlook but based on the tone of their Q1 earnings call, it appears the delivery numbers in Q2 was weaker than expected.
“Reflecting our robust order book and improved availability of the new Panamera and Taycan, we have a good foundation for a sequential stronger unit sales, revenues and profitability starting in Q2 2024 and delivering a better second half of 2024,” Lutz Meschke, Chairman of executive board said in the Q1 2024 earnings call transcript.
The decline of 7% in the first-half is below my forecast of -1% for the full year. Though, I expect deliveries in the second-half to improve as the new Panamera and Taycan reach different regions, I doubt that my forecast for the full-year will be achieved. This is because there’s continued weakness in China and there are other models (Macan and 911) that will start deliveries in the second-half and would likely be affected by the transition as well. Macan and 911 accounted for 43% of Porsche deliveries in 2023 while Panamera and Taycan accounted for 23%. Part of the transition headwind in the second-half will be offset by deliveries of Cayenne though (since second-half of last year was a weak period for the Cayenne due to the transition to a new model).