Permanent job losses increasing, while temporary layoffs decreasing. Another not-so-great sign.
I also created a table and chart to illustrate that recessions usually start when unemployment rate increases from the low are still pretty mild and on avg ~0.5
We can also see that all recessions have seen unemployment go over 2pts increases from the low, even mild ones. So, currently, I would expect unemployment to reach at least a minimum of ~6% in a recession scenario for this cycle.
And this is also a surprising chart for me, according to the same government data, all the net employment added since 2019, has been all for immigrants. US Native employment has remained the same at ~130M, and actually declining lately.
Immigration probably helping with shortages and at lower cost probably too.
So, basically the US economy net job gains lately seem to be mostly immigrants part time jobs.
