Retail Sales

Magaly · February 19, 2024, 3:33pm

Retail Sales is part of the indicators NBER considered for the business cycle’s turning points.

Retail sales in the United States measure the total value of all goods and services sold by retailers to consumers

Main Article: Retail sales - InvestmentWiki

Aron · August 15, 2023, 1:06pm

SI=0%, I=7

U.S retail sales rose 0.7% in July, above 0.4% estimate.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations rose 1% versus 0.5% estimate.
9 out of the 13 categories saw sales increase, including online retailers(+1.9%), sporting goods and related stores(+1.5%) and food service and drinking places(+1.4%).
The numbers point to solid demand given that they are not adjusted for inflation and that Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July.

https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Retail sales - InvestmentWiki

Aron · September 14, 2023, 1:51pm

I=7

U.S retail sales rose 0.6% in August, above estimate for a 0.1% increase and an increase of 0.5% in July(revised down from 0.7%).
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations rose 0.1% versus estimate for a 0.1% decline.
Some of the categories that saw big increase in sales include gasoline stations(+5.2%), Clothing & clothing accessories stores(+0.9%), and electronics and appliance stores(+0.7%).
Categories that saw decline in sales include Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores(-1.6%), furniture(-1.0%), and miscellaneous stores(-1.3%).
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.

Magaly · September 14, 2023, 2:58pm

Retail retail sales did actually decline -0.1 during the month, meaning that all the increase in August was only mostly due to price increases in gasoline. Real retail sales is -1.2 y/y

Magaly · October 17, 2023, 3:44pm

Hot report for retail sales in september, with upward revisions in prior months, however, real retail sales do not show the same strength. Most of the increase is still prices.

Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.3% in September. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation.
Data for August was revised higher to show sales advancing 0.8% instead of 0.6% as previously reported.
Sales at auto dealerships accelerated 1.0% last month after rising 0.4% in August. Receipts at gasoline stations climbed 0.9%, reflecting higher pump prices. Retail sales rose a solid 0.6%, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations.
Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.6% in September. August data was revised to show these so-called core retail sales gaining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously reported.
Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-september-core-retail-sales-rise-solidly-2023-10-17/

Aron · November 15, 2023, 2:19pm

I=7

U.S retail sales fell 0.1% in October, better than expectations for a 0.3% decline and compared to growth of 0.9% in September.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations rose 0.2%, in-line with the estimate.
Sales exluding autos and gas rose 0.1% in October, below +0.2% estimate.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.

Aron · December 14, 2023, 2:17pm

I=7

Retail sales grew 0.3% in November versus 0.2% decline in October (revised up from -0.1%) and better than estimate for a 0.1% decline.
Excluding autos and gas, retail sales rose 0.6%, better than 0.2% estimate.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations rose 0.4%, exceeding 0.2% estimate.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.

Aron · January 17, 2024, 1:53pm

I=7

Retail sales rose 0.6% in December, the strongest pace in three months and above 0.4% estimate.
Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4%, higher than 0.2% estimate.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations increased by 0.8%, above expectations for it to grow by 0.2%.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
Stock futures were down following the report- S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.7% while Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%.

Magaly · January 17, 2024, 4:50pm

So many mixed signals from the economy currently, that I understand why everyone is very confused, and the outlooks all over the place.
Real retail sales only grew 0.25% m/m, which is more modest.

Real Retail sales is also 1 of the recession indicators the NBER uses. Also made a tableau chart for real retail sales M/M level Changes: https://public.tableau.com/views/NBERRecessionIndicators/RetailSalesMMLevel?:language=en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

This month is not particularly strong, is a very “normal” increase. But it is noticeable that the 6m annualized rate has been accelerating lately after going through a “recession” in 2022/2023.
While Q/Q, Q4 was a weaker quarter than Q3.

So ironically that the markets react negatively when good news for the economy comes up.
Another data that the market usually ignores for the most part but this time is against the odds of the amount of FED cuts the markets think we will get this year.

Aron · February 15, 2024, 2:25pm

I=8

Advanced retail sales fell 0.8% in January versus growth of 0.4% in December (revised down from 0.6%) and exceeding expectations for a 0.2% decline as consumers pulled back after the holiday season and due to severe winter weather.
Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.6% below estimates for a 0.2% gain.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations declined 0.4%, lower than estimates for a 0.2% increase.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was up 0.3% on a monthly basis.
Stocks were unmoved by the weak numbers-S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq Composite futures were flat while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%.

Details

Magaly · February 15, 2024, 4:17pm

This is a noticeable decline, real retail sales were down 1.1% m/m, -1.6% 6M annualized, and -2.38 Y/Y.
Real retail sales have remained mostly flat since 2021.

Is just 1 month, real retail sales are usually 1 of the first recession indicators to turn and get weak at the start of a recessions (data only as of 1992), but can also have weak months without meaning broader weakness, so it is worth monitoring to see if it continues.

The decline was also broad across most categories.

Aron · March 14, 2024, 1:19pm

I=7

Advanced retail sales rose 0.6% in February versus a decline of 1.1% in January (revised down from -0.8%) and lower-than 0.8% estimate.
Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.3%, in-line with the estimates.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations was flat m/, lower than estimates for a 0.4% increase.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was up 0.4% on a monthly basis.

Table

Magaly · March 14, 2024, 4:48pm

Real Retail sales were only 0.13 m/m. Overall real sales continue to be weak, but still pretty mild with no clear trend.

Most contributions came from the auto industry. Which mostly explains why the control group (that excludes dealers) is flat.
Is common to see auto retail sales jump during this part of the year due to the tax refund season.

Aron · April 15, 2024, 1:13pm

I=5

Retail sales were up 0.7% in March compared to 0.9% in February (revised up from 0.6%) and exceeding 0.4% estimate.
Excluding autos, retail sales rose 1%, above 0.3% estimate.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations was up 1.1%, exceeding 0.4% estimate.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which rose 0.4% in March.

Table

Aron · May 15, 2024, 1:46pm

I=5

Retail sales in April was unchanged from the previous month versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Control group sales which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations declined by 0.3% versus expectations for a 0.1% increase.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was up 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Aron · June 18, 2024, 12:51pm

I=6

U.S retail sales were up 0.1% in May, lower than 0.3% estimate and compared to a 0.2% decrease in April (revised down from flat growth).
On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 2.27% versus growth of 2.74% in April (revised up from 2.70%).
Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.1% against estimate for a 0.4% increase.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was flat in May.

Magaly · June 18, 2024, 5:45pm

Retail sales continue to come in softer than expected, which could be an indication that spending could be starting to moderate.

Real retail sales only increase 0.1% m/m, and are down on a 3M, 6M, and Y/Y basis.

Contributions:

Control group:

Aron · August 15, 2024, 12:59pm

I=7
Retail sales came in better than expected easing concerns of a recession

U.S retail sales rose 1% in July, better than 0.4% forecast and -0.2% in June (revised down from flat growth).
On a yearly basis, retail sales were up 2.66%, above 2.04% in June (revised up from 2.0%).
Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4%, better than 0.1% estimate.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was up 0.2% on the month.
Dow and S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.9% following the report.

Magaly · August 15, 2024, 6:39pm

Seems the strength came mostly from the revision lower in June, and the rebound in autos in July due to the June outrage.

However, the control group also beat expectations coming at 0.3% vs 0.1% expected.

Overall, still no significant weakness coming from the consumer.

Real retail sales are up 0.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y.

Aron · September 17, 2024, 12:54pm

I=6
Retail sales rose 0.1% in August versus -0.2% estimate, boosted by online stores

U.S retail sales rose 0.1% in August, better than -0.2% forecast and lower than 1.1% in July (revised up from 1%).
On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 2.13%, above 2.86% in July (revised down from 2.90%).
Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.2%, lower than 0.3% estimate.
Control group sales rose 0.3%, in line with the estimates.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation which was up 0.3% on the month.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%, S&P 500 gained 0.4% while Dow futures were up 0.3% following the report.