- According to Sensor Tower estimates, a TikTok ban could increase Instagram’s ad share spend by 3% in Q4 2025.
- They project that Facebook and Instagram will be the main beneficiaries of a TikTok ban, inheriting a combined 42% of TikTok’s ad spend share (around 8%) and in-app revenue (more than $1.7bn in 2024) in Q4 2025.
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Instagram and Facebook could take take 22.% and 17.1% of TikTok’s reallocated ad spend, eMarketer projects.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/14/meta-google-advertising-tiktok-ban
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I=6
Trump’s national security advisor vows to prevent TikTok from going dark
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President Trump’s national security advisor told Fox news that the administration will find ways to keep TikTok alive.
“We will put measures in place to keep TikTok from going dark,” Mike Waltz said.
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Similarly, top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer asked president Biden to extend the dateline for the ban by 90 days.
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However, a White House official, said the Biden’s administration has no plans to extend the dateline.
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The New York Times reported yesterday that Trump is considering an executive order that will allow TikTok to continue operating despite the legal ban until a new buyer is found.
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Supreme Court upholds TikTok ban
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The Supreme Court has ruled to uphold the law that will ban TikTok in US in Jan.19 unless divested.
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The ruling came shortly after Trump held a phone discussion with China’s Xi Jinping.
“The call was a very good one for both China and the U.S.A.,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social Post. “We discussed balancing Trade, Fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects. President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!”
Assessment
This decision was already expected following last week’s arguments between the judges and the participants. I believe that Trump will find ways of ensuring that TikTok doesn’t go dark in US as signaled by his nominee for the national security advisor position yesterday. However, based on rumors that the Chinese government is planning to sell it to Elon Musk, Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration, Waltz comments that they will keep it alive until a buyer is found, and complexities involved in reversing the law, there is a high chance that TikTok will be sold instead. Since the sale will probably not involve the algorithm which is key to Bytedance’s operations, TikTok will likely be no longer as powerful as today, hence still a win for the likes of Meta.
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I=7
Trump envisions a 50% joint ownership of TikTok between US and China, says he will likely give the company a 90-day extension
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Yesterday, President Trump asked companies not to let TikTok go dark in US, saying that he envisions a joint venture between a US company and the current owners of TikTok.
“I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to say up,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
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Trump pointed out that app store companies will not face any fines by allowing TikTok to go dark.
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This followed an earlier interview with NBC News where he said he will mostly likely give TikTok a 90-day extension.
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TikTok restored its service in US following Trump’s vows.
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President Trump gives TikTok 75 more days as he assesses the situation, legal experts say the order does little to save the company
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President Trump signed an executive order allowing TikTok to operate in the US for 75 more days as he assesses the situation.
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The order also prohibits penalties against companies such as Apple and Google for distributing TikTok in their app stores after a dateline for the ban of TikTok was reached on Jan.19.
“Essentially with TikTok I have the right to sell it or close it,” Trump said after signing the executive order. “We may have to get approval from China. I’m not sure. I’m sure they’ll approve.”
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Trump floated the idea of imposing tariffs on China if they didn’t approve the sale of TikTok’s US assets.
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Some legal experts say the executive order does not prevent app stores from being penalized for hosting TikTok.
“Those actions do not stop the law from being in effect. And it does not stop, let’s say, Oracle, from violating the law — which, as far as I can tell, it is doing right now,” Alan Rozenshtein of the University of Minnesota Law School said.
“And even if that’s OK, the president doesn’t have the authority to eliminate the law itself and remove liability for the people who violate it while it’s not being enforced,” Professor Zachary Price of the University of California College of the Law said.
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Meta courts TikTok creators
- Meta is courting major TikTok creators by offering them hefty bonuses, The Information reported citing sources familiar with the matter.
- The bonuses range from $10,000 to $50,000 per month and require the creators to post the short-form video on Instagram before posting in TikTok.
- Recently, Instagram announced a video editing app that is aimed at competing with TikTok’s CapCut.
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Trump is open to Elon Musk or Larry Ellison buying TikTok
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President Trump said he is open to Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison buying TikTok as part of a joint venture with the US government.
“I have the right to make a deal,” Trump said. “So what I’m thinking about saying to somebody is buy it and give half to the United States of America, half, and we’ll give you the permit, and they’ll have a great partner.”
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China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it was up to the individual companies to make decisions about their operations or acquisitions.
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Some investors such as Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary and billionaire Frank McCourt have already expressed intentions to buy TikTok. O’Leary said he’d be happy to buy the app without its coveted algorithm.
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- General Atlantic, a major investor in TikTok said a deal to have TikTok available in the US will get done.
- General Atlantic CEO Bill Ford said there could be solutions “short of divestiture.”
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/22/bytedance-tiktok-ban-deal-china-us-davos
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I=5
Trump said a deal to sale TikTok will likely be concluded in 30 days, adds that many people are interested in it.
“Numerous people are talking to me, very substantial people, about buying it and I will make that decision probably over the next 30 days. Congress has given 90 days. If we can save TikTok, I think it would be a good thing,” he said.
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- Elon Musk said he’s not interested in buying TikTok’s US business.
- President Trump has been championing for TikTok to be bought be Elon Musk or Oracle’s Chairman Larry Ellison.
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TikTok is back in Apple and Google app stores
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Trump said talks on sale of TikTok are progressing well
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Trump said his administration is talking to four groups about buying TikTok and that all talks were good.
“We’re dealing with four different groups. And a lot of people want it, and it’s up to me,” he said.
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Trump has also said that he is willing to extend the dateline for a ban if the deal is not reached by April 5.
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Meanwhile, Chinese government position on the sale has been muted, with the Chinese ministry saying in January that it was up to Bytedance to decide on whether to sell TikTok but adding that such a sale must comply with the Chinese laws.
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Last month, the Washington Post reported that TikTok was slow-rolling negotiations for a sale as it waits for the Chinese government approval. Citing people familiar with the matter, the Washington Post added that Beijing is increasingly willing to let TikTok operations die instead of approving a sale as it waits for a “grand deal” with the Trump administration that includes trade and tech concessions.
Assessment
It appears to me that Trump is willing to do whatever it takes to achieve TikTok sale to the US. Given that some potential buyers are willing to buy TikTok without the algorithm, it’s highly likely that China will allow the sale but only if it gets major concessions from the US such as lifting of Trump’s tariffs. However, estimates indicate that it will likely take TikTok at least two years to build a new algorithm. By then, the likes of Reels will likely be a step ahead, both in terms of user base and technology.
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Frank McCourt, one of TikTok’s bidders said Bytedance is unmotivated in the negotiations
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Frank McCourt, Project Liberty founder and one of the bidders for TikTok said the company’s parent, Bytedance is lightly engaging in talks, but not to the degree one would expect from a motivated seller, Reuters reported. This confirms earlier report that said Beijing was dragging its feat.
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McCourt added that Beijing has a say in TikTok’s sale and ByteDance could shut the app in the US.
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McCourt pointed out that the bidding process is anything but typical, that there is no defined set of assets, no valuation and ByteDance has not hired an investment bank to lead the deal.
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Vice President Vance, who is running the auction has said there is likely to be a “high-level” TikTok deal by the April 5 deadline.
“There will almost certainly be a high-level agreement that I think satisfies our national security concerns, allows there to be a distinct American TikTok enterprise,” he said.
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Vance added that there are a number of clerical issues that could push the finalization of an agreement past the deadline.
China’s counter-tariff on U.S. goods suggests that the sale of TikTok could take longer to finalize
- The dateline for TikTok ban in the U.S. will expire tomorrow.
- President Trump said the other day that if China agrees to a TikTok sale, it will grant them a tariff relief.
- Earlier this week, Trump said that he’s confident there would be a deal.
Assessment
China’s decision today to impose a 34% counter-tariff on U.S. imports signals that it may not be ready to enter into a deal involving the sale of TikTok. This increases the likelihood that a deal will take longer to finalize. However, Trump has previously stated that he is willing to extend the ban deadline.
The more uncertainty surrounds TikTok, the more market share it risks losing to competitors like Meta Platforms. According to Sensor Tower, eight of the ten largest advertiser categories reduced their ad spend on TikTok in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Sensor Tower notes that these slight to moderate pullbacks in spending largely shifted to Meta Platforms.
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I=7
Trump extends the deadline requiring TikTok to sell its U.S. operations or be banned.
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According to people familiar with TikTok discussions, a deal had been reached but the tariff situation forced China to stop its conclusion.
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