I=7
US Supreme Court leans towards upholding the law that will ban TikTok
- The US Supreme Court is leaning towards upholding the law that will ban TikTok in Jan.19, unless divested.
- However, the court could temporarily stop the ban even if it eventually rules against TikTok.
- Recently, Trump filed a brief at the Supreme Court asking the justices to delay the ban so that when he takes office, he can find a political solution.
- While Trump could refuse to enforce the ban and even ask congress to eliminate the ban through a new legislation, it could still be risky for app stores to restore TikTok if the law is still in the books. The possibility of pushing congress to come up with a new legislation could still be low given that the house had passed the bill overwhelmingly.
- Some scholars argue that Trump could lift the ban without going through congress if he proves that TikTok is no longer under Chinese control.
Assessment
It looks like Trump’s options to save TikTok are limited. With the Supreme Court leaning towards upholding the law, the probability that TikTok gets banned is now higher than my earlier estimate of 60%.