Summary of Quarterly Growth
Most components improved its Q/Q growth in Q2 2024, except for Residential investment and Net exports.
Here are the detailed numbers.
Real Final sales (which measure final demand without inventory changes), were not as strong but still with stable growth, growing 2% Q/Q Ann (vs 1.85% in Q1 2024) and 2.83% Y/Y (vs 2.84% in Q1 2024).
I would like to point out that GDP is not a good indication of future developments. Is common to still experience strong or positive growth even 1 quarter before a recession starts.
On average (excluding 2020 recession) GDP shows a 1.77% Q/Q Ann and a 2.78% Y/Y growth 1 quarter before a recession has started.
I am not implying that a recession will start next quarter either, only that aggregate GDP is only a coincident indicator and typically declines consistently only at the onset of a recession. Within GDP, residential investment and durable goods tend to be more leading indicators. But I am still working on this complete analysis and will post my conclusions when finished.
Sources:
Data
Tableau
Model data (In progress)