January 2025 CPI Expectations
Expectations for January CPI show no additional progress on inflation for another month. However, Cleveland Fed projections suggest February could mark the start of another improvement.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was forecasted to increase by 0.30% MoM, keeping the YoY rate at 3.2%.
Developments during the month:
- Wages growth saw an acceleration during the month (0.5% m/m, 4.1% y/y)
- Home prices growing about 3.8% currently (~6% in January 2024). Rent prices have been on a very clear downward trajectory.
- Food prices decreased 1.6% m/m, but remained elevated at 6.2% y/y
- Oil prices jump 8% m/m, but remain almost flat y/y at 2.1%. Gas prices are also flat y/y.
- Used car prices continued to increase at 0.4% m/m, and 0.8% y/y.
- The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in January declined 2.2% from December
Goldman Sachs expectations by category, which shows especially stubbornness in services inflation
