That’s interesting. Do we have long-term graphs of consumer debt to income levels in the Wiki that help us to understand how healthy debt levels are in comparison to income? I think to continue this discussion on the consumer, the topic below is probably the correct one?
When it comes to automotive but also in general, it would be interesting if we could increasingly connect sub-questions like delinquencies or auto loan growth to larger questions about how the industry will develop. Having a clear focus on the highest-level questions of portfolio impacts and one level below that industry developments will help us to focus on the right components/indicators as we always try to put them into context with those higher level questions and try to weigh and factor them in correctly.
Questions I would have in mind include:
- How correlated are sub-components like e.g. delinquencies or auto loan growth with the development of the automotive industry?
- Can those sub-components or others serve as reliable leading indicators?
- Which sub-components are the most important ones and how can we model insights from them into our model of the automotive industry?
- Are there irrelevant components that might only affect a very small population subsection or even skew the picture?
etc. etc.
Our goal would be to continuously improve the larger picture that we are seeing until it becomes very clear and a good example for other research areas and help build our reputation and guide our investment decisions.