Advertising Markets

Aron · January 8, 2026, 8:18pm

I=5
Dentsu forecasts global advertising spend will grow 5.1% y/y in 2026, with U.S. ad spend growing 5.0%

It forecasts digital advertising will grow 6.7%, with retail media ad spend growing 14.1%, online video at 11.5% and social at 11.4%.
According to Forrester, Dentsu manages $27 billion in media global billings.

moritz · January 12, 2026, 3:22pm

Do any of those new releases change your estimates and calculations in the valuation model?

Aron · January 12, 2026, 3:35pm

No, they align with my revenue estimates.

Aron · January 22, 2026, 2:31pm

I=6
WPP raised their global ad spend growth rate forecast for 2025 to 8.8% in December from 6% in June

WPP said in December that they expect global ad spend (excluding U.S. political advertising) to grow 8.8% y/y in 2025 to $1.14 trillion, raising its forecast from 6% predicted in June.
It forecasts global ad spend to grow 7.1% in 2026, up from 6.1% predicted in June.
WPP said AI is driving ad spend since some businesses are championing cost savings from ad creation into new ad buys.
WPP is one of the largest advertising and marketing services companies. In 2024, it generated a revenue of £14.7 billion, with 85% of revenue coming from Global Integrated Agencies which include media placements and creative services.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ad-spend-to-grow-more-than-expected-in-2025-as-tariffs-sting-less-and-ai-gives-a-leg-up-4b4bf9ce

Aron · April 13, 2026, 3:20pm

I=5
Stifel lowered its digital advertising growth forecast for 2026 to 7.3% from a prior estimate of 8.3%

Aron · April 20, 2026, 12:24pm

I=5, March 13, 2026
Madison & Wall raised its 2026 U.S. ad spending growth forecast to 10.2% from 8.9% projected in December, citing resilience in U.S. economy

Excluding political advertising, Madison & Wall projects U.S. advertising market growth of 8.1%, up from 6.6% projected in December.

Aron · April 20, 2026, 12:39pm

I=5
MoffettNathanson raised raised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth estimate to 12.9% from 6.3% projected in October

“For now, channel checks point to business as usual,” the analysts said.

Aron · April 20, 2026, 1:39pm

I=6
U.S. digital advertising spend (actual measurement) rose 8.7% and 11.9% y/y in January and February respectively, Guideline’s advertising spend index shows

This compares to an average of 10.7% in Q4 2025 (Google Sheets), suggesting digital ad spending was stable in the first two months of 2026.

Aron · April 22, 2026, 3:22pm

I=5
EMarketer forecasts Meta will overtake Google in advertising revenue this year, growing ad revenue by 24.1%, 17.1% and 11% y/y in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively

It doesn’t expect the youth-related lawsuits to have material impact in the near-term.

Aron · May 28, 2026, 5:03pm

I=5
Dentsu forecasts global ad spend will grow 5% y/y to $1.06 trillion in 2026 and 5.5% y/y in 2027

Their December 2025 projections indicated global ad spend growth of 5.1% y/y in 2026.

Aron · July 14, 2026, 11:23am

I=6
WARC raised its 2026 global ad spend growth forecast to 11.5% from 9.7% but warns ongoing Iran conflict could affect ad spend

It also raised its 2027 global ad spend growth forecast to 8.2% from 7.9%.
However, it warned that the ongoing Iran conflict could lower global ad spend.
They project that a moderate scenario would reduce incremental growth by $20.5 billion this year, putting growth rate at 9.86%.
In a severe scenario, incremental growth would fall by $39.6 billion in 2026 and another $54.1 billion in 2027, putting 2026 growth rate at 8.32%.
They expect U.S. ad spend to grow 9.5% in 2026, but could lose $9.8bn in growth over a severe scenario, reducing to 3.4%.

Aron · July 14, 2026, 11:42am

I=6
WPP Media raised 2026 global ad forecast growth rate by 1.8 points to +9.7%

It also raised 2027 forecast to 6.3% from 5.4%.
Recent updates raises the 2026 average growth forecast by 1.2 points to +8.9%.

Aron · July 15, 2026, 11:33am

I=6
U.S. digital advertising spend (actual measurement) rose 10.9% and 9.4% y/y in April and May respectively, Guideline’s advertising spend index shows

This compares to an average of 9.5% in Q1 2026 (Google Sheets), suggesting digital ad spending was stable/improved in the first two months of Q2 2026.