Weekly Macro Brief Ending April 13, 2026
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Energy shock remains the dominant macro driver, but transmission is still partial rather than systemic: BlackRock and Yardeni both emphasize that the Middle East conflict has created a global supply-risk overlay for oil, but markets continue to assume substitution (US + other producers) limits sustained disruption. [EY][BLK]
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The economy is slowing, not resilient — but it is not breaking either: Yardeni highlights weakening growth expectations (Atlanta Fed ~1.3–1.6%) and flattening real disposable income, while JPM-AM similarly frames growth as “slowing but not stalling.” The key point is trend deceleration, not cyclical collapse. [EY][JPM-AM]
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The consumer is weakening beneath stable headline spending: Bilello explicitly flags collapsing sentiment (near multi-decade lows), slowing real wage growth, and rising inflation pressure as early warning signals. Yardeni complements this by noting that spending strength is increasingly concentrated and partially weather- and savings-driven rather than income-led. [CB][EY]
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Inflation risk is rising again via energy, not demand: BlackRock and Wells Fargo both stress that the inflation impulse is now externally driven (oil, transport, food), not purely domestic demand. This makes it harder for the Fed to “look through” the shock. [BLK][WF]
Sources:
https://mlaem.fs.ml.com/content/dam/ML/ecomm/pdf/CMO_Merrill_04-13-2026_ada.pdf
