Weekly Macro Brief Ending February 17, 2026
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AI narrative flips from “builders win” to “software losers emerge:” A broad software selloff reflects markets now treating AI as active disruption to business models (AI agents replacing workflow tasks), not just hype. Dispersion across tech sectors is widening materially. [BLK]
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AI buildout becomes a macro funding story (corporate leverage + long-duration issuance): Hyperscalers are locking in long-term financing through large IG issuance as capex surges, adding supply to bond markets already absorbing heavy fiscal deficits — reinforcing upward pressure on term premia. [BLK]
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“Fed pause” logic strengthens: Upside jobs surprise combined with inflation settling above 2% supports an extended pause. Core CPI met expectations, but wage growth and labor tightness remain consistent with inflation stabilizing closer to ~3% than 2% near-term. [BLK] [JPM-AM]
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Growth remains solid, but the 2026 path may be uneven: JPM expects 2026 GDP to start weak (~1% annualized), accelerate above 3% in Q2–Q3 on refunds/stimulus, then slow back toward 1% in Q4, resulting in ~2% growth for the year [JPM-AM].
