Weekly Macro Brief Ending February 12, 2026
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Real economy is sluggish, markets are not: JPMorgan-Assets Management argues the January “real economy” (consumption + jobs) looks soft once you strip out weather/shutdown noise and “stimulus sugar,” even as equities (Dow > 50,000) and tech capex plans look exuberant. [JPM-AM]
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Labor is bifurcated: headline stabilization vs demand erosion signals: JPMorgan-Wealth Management reads January payrolls (+130k, UR 4.3%) as labor “troughing,” but Wells Fargo and JPMorgan-Assets Management both stress job openings near multi-year lows and rising layoff announcements as the key “watch this next” risk. [JPM-WM][WF][JPM-AM]
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Inflation is the spoiler: activity improved, price pressure improved too (up): Wells Fargo sees a rebound in ISM manufacturing/services, but also “prices paid” staying elevated; they expect a firmer core CPI print (0.33% m/m) driven by seasonality, restocking, delayed tariff pass-through and firms testing pricing power. [WF]
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Tariffs are noisy, not (yet) re-escalating like 2025: Wells Fargo’s January tariff scorecard says headline threats persist, but the average effective tariff rate nudged down modestly (their estimate ~16%) due to new/updated deals, implying more “headline shocks” than a regime shock—so far. [WF]
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Under the hood, it’s rotation + dispersion, not a broken bull: Merrill and Bilello both highlight leadership rotation away from crowded tech/software into cyclicals/value/smaller caps and non-U.S. equities; Merrill’s point is breadth is building even as AI-related volatility rises. Both stress the broader index held up because money rotated elsewhere. [MER][CB]
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Fed constrained by the inflation–labor tension: Wells Fargo frames the dual mandate as “stuck in tension” (cooling labor signals but sticky price pressure), and JPMorgan-Wealth Management notes the Fed is meeting-by-meeting after holding at 3.50%–3.75%. [WF][JPM-WM]
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