Weekly Macro Brief Ending February 2, 2026
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Federal Reserve hits “on-hold” posture: bar for cuts rises: Jerome Powell emphasized policy isn’t “significantly restrictive,” while the statement removed some labor-downside language and leaned slightly more hawkish, signaling patience rather than urgency to resume easing. [WF][JPM-WM-Fed]
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Kevin Warsh nomination: “new chair, same constraints:” Confirmation is likely but could be delayed by Senate politics; more importantly, the Fed chair cannot unilaterally force cuts. President Trump favors lower rates, while Warsh sends mixed signals—historically hawkish, more recently arguing for more aggressive easing—yet institutional consensus remains the binding constraint. [JPM-AM][WF]
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Government shutdown “redux” becomes a macro variable: The risk of at least a weekend shutdown is high; if extended, delayed or degraded BLS/BEA data could impair Fed decision-making at a sensitive juncture for policy. [WF]
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Debt/term-premium anxiety spreads from Japan to the U.S. narrative — safe havens wobble, gold becomes a “crisis hedge: ” Government debt is increasingly “tradeable,” with fiscal slippage showing up in currencies and long-end yields rather than equities—weakening traditional havens and reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge. [JPM-WM-Fiscal][EY]
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**AI capex jitters trigger equity dispersion; infrastructure emerges as a “picks-and-shovels” beneficiary at a valuation discount: ** AI volatility reflects a reshuffling of winners, not the end of the theme. Listed infrastructure trades roughly 20% below its long-run EV/EBITDA average while benefiting from AI build-out, defense spending, energy security and inflation-linked cash flows; most investors remain structurally under-allocated. [BLK]
GPT Summary (Notion)
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