Weekly Macro Brief Ending January 13, 2026
Fed: January hold, March live: December jobs were weak enough to keep rate cuts in play, but not weak enough to force a January move. Wells strengthens its call for a March cut, and JPM Wealth Management also says a January cut is unlikely. [WF], [JPM-WM]
Inflation: calmer trend, but the next CPI matters: December CPI is the first cleaner inflation read after shutdown-related noise. BlackRock warns that early-year CPI often surprises to the upside, while JPM-WM notes inflation is slower than a year ago but still not fully resolved. [BLK], [JPM-WM]
Tariffs: the real macro trigger is the Supreme Court: Wells notes the Court has not ruled yet but a decision could come soon, and that even a strike-down may not materially reduce tariffs if alternative authorities are used. Yardeni also flags a tariff ruling “this month” as a key market risk. [WF], [EY]
Equities: earnings strength is broadening beyond mega-caps: BlackRock sees the earnings gap narrowing between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market, with AI and other mega forces supporting cyclicals. Merrill also highlights earnings upgrades spreading globally into cyclical and value sectors and favors more international diversification. Yardeni expects X-Mags to outperform Mags this year due to emerging “AI fatigue.” [BLK], [MER], [EY]
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