The models that will be impacted by the EU Cybersecurity law include the ones you mentioned as well as the Volkswagen Up compact car, the Transporter T6.1 and Audi TT and R8 sports cars.
In 2023, 23,458 and 35,841 units of the Macans and Volkswagen Ups were registered in Europe, respectively.
In 2023, 9,233 and 1,591 units of the Audi TT and R8 were delivered to customers worldwide, respectively.
A total of 81,535 units of the T6.1 were produced in 2023 while 5,000 units of the 718 were sold in Europe in 2022.
Assessment
The new cybersecurity law will mainly impact the Porsche brand. Given the good reception of the EV Macan, the headwind could be less than 10,000 units in 2024. The hit on the 718 could be less than 3,000 units in 2024.
The production of the Audi TT and R8 was already negligible, so I don’t expect the regulation to have a significant headwind on Audi deliveries.
For Volkswagen Brand Group Core, I expect an headwind of around 50,000 units in 2024 mainly due to the ending of production of the Volkswagen Ups. The T6.1 will be replaced by a new Transporter model in September 2024.