Volkswagen Group will bring 30 new models in 2024. I have analyzed some of the facelifts and the 2024 Porsche Panamera, Volkswagen Passat and Skoda Kodiaq seems to have received good reception from customers. The other upcoming facelifts will come with minor tweaks such as improved performance and better tech. Volkswagen is increasing prices for these models with minor changes as well but in a sensible manner eg addition of some 500-2000 euros.
Based on the above findings, macro, competition, etc, I tried to forecast the unit sales and pricing for 2024 and 2025 for each brand. I also updated the valuation model to reflect the unit sales and pricing estimates. For 2024, I expect Volkswagen Group revenue to grow by 4.5% y/y to 336.7 billion euros, operating return on sales of 6.98% and diluted EPS of 31 euros. The 2024 operating performance will likely benefit from Skoda, SEAT and Volkswagen Passenger Cars unit sales.
For 2025, I expect Volkswagen Group’s revenue to grow by 12.4% y/y to 378.5 billion euros, operating return on sales of 7.5% and diluted EPS of 38 euros. I expect the 2025 operating performance to be driven mostly by Audi. I forecast 2025 Audi revenue to grow by 21% y/y to 77.1 billon euros driven by weak comps and pick up of deliveries of its highly anticipated models.
I will continue assessing the other models and update the model accordingly.
N/B: Volkswagen Group is guiding for sales revenue of 338.4 billion euros (+5%) in 2024 and operating return on sales of between 7% and 7.5%.