Yardeni current targets are 5,400 by 2024, 6,000 by 2025 and 6,500 by 2026.
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The S&P500 is on track to have one of its best years since 1990 at 24% currently, and the 13th best ever.
Interesting the rotation that has happened since July after rate cuts became clear
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SP500 is now above every single major institution target at the beginning of the year, an incredible year for the markets
It also tells a lot about the forecasting abilities of analysts and the difficulty of doing this, especially for the market.
5 posts were merged into an existing topic: Retail Investors Market Sentiment and Positioning
“Smart money” is reducing long exposure to US equities
- Leveraged funds and asset managers net S&P 500 futures positions tumbled by nearly $80 BILLION despite a small pick-up last week.
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3 posts were merged into an existing topic: CTAs Market Positioning
SP500 Price Targets Revised Down but Still Expected to be up 25% in 2025
Factset’s analysis of analyst bottom-up SPX price targets for the next 12 months as of Thursday saw the first softening in as long as I can remember falling -17pts w/w to 6,926 (but which would still be +25.4% from Thursday’s close), and still up ~1,993 points over the past 48 weeks.
Consumer Discr (+36.0% (up from +24.7% two weeks ago) flip flops again with Tech (+33.0% (up from +24.8% two weeks ago)) as the sector with the largest upside seen by analysts (the other megacap growth sector, Comm Services is third at +28.3%), while Consumer Staples remains as the sector expected to see the smallest price increase (+13.2% but up from +7.4% last week).
As a reminder the last 20 yrs they have been on avg +6.3% too high from where they start the year (which was 6,755), but note they underestimated it five of the past six years (including 2024).
https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1901650985434648646
The S&P 500 fell 4.8% today, its biggest 1-day decline since June 2020.
- The S&P 500 is now down over 12% from its peak on February 19, the biggest drawdown since 2022. This is the 30th correction >5% and 10th correction >10% since the March 2009 low
- The Magnificent 7 Index is now down over -30% from its all time high seen on December 18th.
