BoA’s overall take on the NFP report is a positive one, and they also point out the solid income growth
Apr payrolls came in at 177k, slightly higher than our above-consensus (138k) forecast of 165k. Despite modest downward revisions (-58k) to Feb and Mar, this is a healthy number. The u-rate remained at 4.2% despite an uptick in the LFPR. Hours were revised up a tenth for Mar and stayed there in Apr. This should support 1Q income growth. The Apr jobs report was solid all around. There are no substantial signs yet of a policy (DOGE/tariffs/ immigration) drag on payrolls, but we’ll be keeping an eye on this.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% after nonfarm payrolls came in at 139,000 for May, surpassing economists’ expectations of 126,000
Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 in May, below 147,000 in April (revised downwards from 177,000) but above 126,000 estimate.
Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, in line with estimates.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month against expectations to rise at 0.3% as in April.
Labor force participation rate dropped 0.2% to 62.4%.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7% following the report.
April nonfarm payroll numbers were also revised downwards by 65,000 to 120,000.
Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality were the major contributors to the job gains.
The report eases recent concerns sparked by other economic indicators, such as rising jobless claims and weakening services activity, that had suggested the U.S. economy was heading toward a slowdown.
I=8
Nonfarm payrolls added 22,000 jobs in August, significantly lower than 75,000 estimate
Nonfarm payrolls added 22,000 jobs in August, significantly lower than 75,000 expected and below 79,000 in July (revised upwards from 73,000).
Unemployment rate was 4.3%, in line with estimate but up from 4.2% in July.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, in line with the estimate and unchanged from the previous month.
Labor force participation rate rose to 62.3% from 62.2% in July.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6% following the release of the jobs report.
Job gains were led by Education & Health Services (+46,000) and Leisure & Hospitality (+28,000) while losses were led by Professional & Business Services (-17,000) and Government (-16,000).
I=8 Delayed September job numbers rose 119,000, significantly above 51,000 estimate while unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%
Nonfarm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly above 51,000 estimate.
August job numbers were revised down to -4k from +22k.
Unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, against expectations for it to stay unchanged at 4.3%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September, below 0.3% estimate and 0.4% in August (revised upwards from 0.3%).
Labor force participation rate rose to 62.4% from 62.3% in August.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq Composite futures are up 0.6% following the report, but could have also been boosted by the strong Nvidia earnings.
I=8 Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February versus expectations for 58,000 growth, unemployment rate was 4.4% versus 4.3% estimate
S&P 500 futures sheds 0.7% while Nasdaq 100 futures drops 0.9% following the release.
The jobs report was impacted by the Kaiser Permanente health strike which led to a loss of 28,000 jobs and harsh weather conditions which interrupted hiring in sectors like construction and services.
Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors (and other experts (Notion) view the February jobs report as weak and showing a flat “jobless expansion,” which raises attention to downside risks in the labor market.
I=8 Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, above 65,000 estimate while unemployment rate was in line with estimate
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, above 65,000 estimate but down from 185,000 in March ( revised upwards from 178,000).
Unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line with the estimate.
March nonfarm payrolls had also exceeded 65,000 estimate.
The figures give the fed space to keep interest rates unchanged, after fed chair Jerome Powell said last week that the job market has shown “more and more signs of stability.”
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.6% on an annual basis, versus 0.3% and 3.8% estimates, respectively.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures are up 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, following the report, though gains may also be supported by hopes for an Iran peace deal.
I=8 Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, above 85,000 estimate while unemployment rate was in line with estimate
Nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 in May, above 85,000 estimate but down from 179,000 in April (revised upwards from 115,000).
Unemployment rate healdy steady at 4.3%, in line with estimates.
Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.8%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.534% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sheds more than 1% as the report indicates the labor market is resilient and may embolden the fed to hike interest rates to contain inflation (caused by rising fuel costs).
