US Nonfarm Payroll and Employment Levels

BoA’s overall take on the NFP report is a positive one, and they also point out the solid income growth

Apr payrolls came in at 177k, slightly higher than our above-consensus (138k) forecast of 165k. Despite modest downward revisions (-58k) to Feb and Mar, this is a healthy number. The u-rate remained at 4.2% despite an uptick in the LFPR. Hours were revised up a tenth for Mar and stayed there in Apr. This should support 1Q income growth. The Apr jobs report was solid all around. There are no substantial signs yet of a policy (DOGE/tariffs/ immigration) drag on payrolls, but we’ll be keeping an eye on this.


https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1918387515746353306

S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% after nonfarm payrolls came in at 139,000 for May, surpassing economists’ expectations of 126,000

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 in May, below 147,000 in April (revised downwards from 177,000) but above 126,000 estimate.

  • Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, in line with estimates.

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month against expectations to rise at 0.3% as in April.

  • Labor force participation rate dropped 0.2% to 62.4%.

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7% following the report.

  • April nonfarm payroll numbers were also revised downwards by 65,000 to 120,000.

  • Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality were the major contributors to the job gains.

  • The report eases recent concerns sparked by other economic indicators, such as rising jobless claims and weakening services activity, that had suggested the U.S. economy was heading toward a slowdown.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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S&P 500 futures gains 0.3% after nonfarm payrolls rose 147,000 in June, exceeding 106,000 estimate and unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 147,000 in May, above 106,000 estimate and 144,000 in May (revised upwards from 139,000).

  • Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in April, below 4.3% estimate.

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% on the month, down from 0.4% in May and below 0.3% estimate.

  • Labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3% from 62.4%.

  • S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% and 0.4% respectively following the report.

  • Job gains were driven by government, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality.

  • Powell recently said if the labor market were to weaken significantly, it would be possible to cut rates earlier than expected.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Nonfarm payrolls rose 73,000 in July, below 103,000 estimate and June number revised downwards by 147,000 to 14,000

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 73,000 in July, below 103,000 estimate and above 14,000 in June (revised downwards from 147,000).

  • Unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with estimate but above 4.1% in June.

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, in line with the estimate but above 0.2% in June.

  • Labor force participation rate dropped to 62.2% from 62.3%.

  • Job gains came from healthcare (+55,000) and social assistance (+18,000) while job losses came mainly from federal government employment (-12,000).

  • September rate cut is now priced in, taking the number of expected rate cuts this year to two from one.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Trump fires head of Bureau of Labor Statistics, citing she manipulated jobs report data before elections to boost Kamala Harris’s election