Some insights following the June 2024 report
The unemployment rate has increased by 0.7% since the cycle lows. Every time in the past we have seen an increase of this magnitude (excluding 2020), the economy is entering a recession already.
The Sahm rule (Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U3 unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.) is also close to triggering at 0.43
But I would be wary currently of making conclusions right away since this cycle has broken many past relationships.
Job growth continues to come mostly from non-cyclical industries
Private job growth has cooled but remains mostly on par with pre-levels. Government job growth is taking a more important share recently.
The majority of the increase in the labor force has been mostly from the prime age group (25-54 years)
And mostly from immigration
