Trades of Upwork Stock. Everyone is allowed to post their trades, discuss their outlook or discuss and ask questions about the trades of others.
Reduced my Upwork position today by 50% today at approx €9. Given the reasons cited in Q2 2023 Upwork Earnings topic. Results are imminent.
I managed to buy back half of the shares I sold today. The repurchase price has been 10.50$ or approx. 9.60€ shortly after the results have been released. This means I lost about 6.5% on those rebuys. My share count is still 25% lower than earlier today.
I increased my Upwork position today by 25% at an average price of $14.43. The position is now the largest it has ever been making up 20.8% of the stocks and 15.2% of the total portfolio.
The investment is a partial redeployment of profits from the exited Spotify investment.
I believe that the stock is undervalued by at least 50% based on my slightly conservative base case model but it has the potential to double or triple in the next years depending on Upwork’s future actual growth rates.
My trust in Upworks management increased with newly launched products and a more smoothly operating app and recent strong financial performance and take rate expansion in Q3 2023 makes the business more resilient even in an adverse business environment.
Overall Upwork remains to be a long term growth story given it’s vast market potential and very strong market position.
In the short term i agree with @Aron that an expansion of Upworks take rate is likely and that Upworks Q1 outlook will be in particular interesting for this reason. Therefore I think that this quarter is going to be of high interest and could determine if Upwork will stay in it’s current trading range.
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I sold my Upwork position after results came in diametrical to expectations and endangered the investment thesis.
Reasons included worries about the sustainability of its new pricing model, uninspiring growth projections, higher costs than expected, and after-hours stock trading up to Upwork’s long-standing resistance line, which seemed paradox given the results.
Ultimately, the margin of safety for the investment vanished and this means that low or mediocre risk factors from the macro environment, management execution, competition etc. weigh in more.
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