My current assessment of the travel industry:
The industry seems to be still in a good position, with still strong growth in air travel and international tourism, though growth rates slowing from Q1 to Q2.
Is expected to continue to be this way for the rest of the year, especially in the summer season. Obviously assuming no significant economic slowdown in 2023.
Some insights:
- Air passenger traffic growing significantly still, international and domestic. May marked the first month that the global passenger load factor was fully restored to 2019 levels. Moreover, the available seat capacity recovered to 96.1% of pre-crisis levels.
- International tourist arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023, growing 86% y/y (Q2 still not available)
- In the US, car rental spending for businesses, more than doubled in Q2 2023 compared to the year prior, and also grew compared to Q1 2023. Though avg length of rental is declining. Prices probably have increased significantly, because spending is significantly higher since 2019.
- Forecast points to continued positive growth in coming years, but at a slower growth rate than 2022/2023.