Trump announced massive trade deal with Japan, setting tariff on Japanese goods at 15%
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Trump said Japan will invest $550 billion in US and pay reciprocal tariff of 15%.
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Auto stocks rose following the announcement; Volkswagen up 5%.
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EU and US are nearing a trade deal that will impose 15% tariff on EU imports, FT reported
- EU and US are nearing a trade deal that will impose 15% tariff on EU imports, Financial Times reported citing three people familiar with the matter.
- However, the EU continues to prepare a 30% retaliatory tariff on €93bn worth of US imports, in case a deal is not reached by August 1.
https://www.ft.com/content/460b7784-88d7-4324-9e4d-dc9692d15e72
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Trump said there is a 50-50 chance of trade deal with the EU
“We’re working very diligently with Europe, the EU,” Trump told reporters. “I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU.”
Peter Navarro told Bloomberg News the report that the EU and US might strike a 15% tariff deal should be taken with “a grain of salt”.
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-says-there-is-50-50-chance-trade-deal-with-eu-2025-07-25/
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US and EU reached a deal for 15% tariff on most European goods
“It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a very big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said alongside von der Leyen.
“It’s a good deal, it’s a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting.
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Trump modified “reciprocal” tariffs on most countries that have not made deals with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%
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S&P 500 futures shed 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 lost 1% as investors react to Trump’s modified tariff rates
S&P 500 futures shed 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 lost 1% after Trump announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not entered trade deals with the US.
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Trump extends deadline for China tariffs by another 90 days, keeping the 30% tariff on China goods in place
Had Trump not extended the deadline, tariffs would have surged back up to 245%.
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U.S. Appeals Court ruled against most Trump tariffs
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U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on Friday that most of Trump’s global tariffs including the reciprocal tariffs are illegal.
“The core Congressional power to impose taxes such as tariffs is vested exclusively in the legislative branch by the Constitution,” the court said. “Tariffs are a core Congressional power.”
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The court paused its ruling until Oct. 14 to give Trump’s administration time to ask the Supreme Court to reverse the decision.
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Trump later attacked the Appeals Court saying it’s “Highly Partisan” and claimed that the Supreme Court will rule in his favor.
Most Trump tariffs ruled illegal by appeals court, dealing major blow to trade policy
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained more than 0.5% after Trump said US-China talks are going well
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% following Trump’s announcement.
On June 11, the US and China reached a preliminary deal to cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 55% from 145%.
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S&P 500 futures sheds 1.3%+ after Trump threatened massive tariffs on China over rare earths dispute
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S&P 500 futures shed 1.3% while Nasdaq Composite futures lost 1.9% after Trump threatened massive tariffs on China over rare earths dispute and said he won’t be meeting President Xi in two weeks as scheduled.
“They are becoming very hostile, and sending letters to Countries throughout the World, that they want to impose Export Controls on each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else…” Trump wrote.
“I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” Trump added.
“One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration,” he added.
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China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign entities that export products which contain more than 1% of rare earths metals or are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology must seek export license.
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Trump said US will impose 100% additional tariffs on China imports
- Trump said US will impose 100% additional tariffs on China imports and export controls on critical software effective Nov 1.
- The current effect tariff rate on China imports is around 40%, according to Wells Fargo.
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S&P 500 futures rise 1.6% after Trump said on Sunday trade relations with China “will all be fine"
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S&P 500 futures rise 1.6% while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2% after Trump wrote that trade relations with China “will all be fine”.
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S&PP 500 futures sheds 1.2% as China and US begin charging additional port fees on each other’s cargo
- S&PP 500 futures sheds 1.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.6% as China and the U.S. begin charging additional port fees on each others’ cargo ships, escalating their trade tensions.
- China imposed the levies today after vowing last week that it will impose its own port fees on U.S.-linked vessels from the same day the U.S. fees took effect.
- An investigation by the Biden administration had found that China uses unfair practices to dominate the global maritime industry.
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Trump threatened to ban Chinese cooking oil over Soybean snub, escalating trade tensions further
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China imported $12.8 billion worth of U.S. Soybeans in 2024, making it the top buyer of U.S. Soybeans by far but hasn’t bought any since May as trade tensions continue.
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S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% after Trump said negotiations with China are getting a long very well in trade talks
“I think we are in a strong position in China trade talks,” Trump reassured reporters at the White House. “China wants to talk, and we like talking with China,” Trump continued.
He pointed out that the planned 100% tariffs on Chinese goods set for November could be avoided.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures rose 0.6% following Trump’s announcement.
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Trump said talks with Xi were positive and that fentanyl tariffs will be cut to 10% from 20%
- President Trump said talks with Xi were positive, yielding a reduction in fentanyl tariffs to 10% from 20%.
- The total tariffs on Chinese goods now stand at 47% from 57%.
- Trump also said they entered a 1-year agreement with China that it would not impose serious restrictions on rare earth minerals, taking his threat of 100% tariff on China off the table.
- Futures were little changed following the announcement.
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Trump said U.S. will impose 10% tariff on Denmark and other 8 European countries until there is a deal to buy Greenland
President Trump said tariffs on 8 European countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland) will increase to 25% from 15% (on European Countries) and 10% (on The UK) until there is a deal to buy Greenland.
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Trump calls off tariffs on the 7 European countries and the UK after reaching a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland
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U.S. Supreme Court ruled that most of president Trump’s tariffs are illegal, affecting 65% of last year’s revenue from tariffs
- The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a 1977 law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give president Trump authority to impose tariffs, pointing that the IEEPA authority is reserved for the Congress.
- IEEPA-based tariffs brought in $129 billion for the U.S. government last year, around 65% of the around $200 billion from tariffs collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
- The ruling undermines the legal basis of imposing reciprocal tariffs such as the 15% baseline tariff on EU goods and 10% baseline tariff on Chinese goods but it’s currently unclear whether the deals entered with the parties will end or transitioned to the next statute.
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According to the New York Federal Reserve’s recent study, 90% of the IEEPA tariffs have be borne by U.S. businesses and consumers.
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Following the ruling, Trump said he has a back up plan and Bloomberg policy analysts point out (second video) that his most immediate reaction is likely to impose 15% across the board for 150 days under section 122 as they assess and frame how they can use other laws such as Section 338 (50% unlimited), Section 232 (No limits), Section 201 (50% for 4 years), Section 301 (Unlimited, 4 years).
Assessment
It seems the ruling may not materially change the tariff situation given Trump can ask Congress to authorize the use of IEEPA to impose the tariffs or impose tariffs using the other laws. In my opinion, the only tailwind from today’s ruling is that the tariffs amount may be smaller over the short-term and that Trump’s tariff authority may diminish.
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