JPM says today tariffs could increase PCE inflation by ~1-1.5%, and bring the economy very close to a recession
Tariffs to hit:
- Real disposable income hence consumer spending in middle part of the year
- Exports if retaliation happens
- Investment spending if uncertainty continues
I currently think some of these tariffs will be negotiated and not final yet (Bessent kind of hinted it here), but the uncertainty how, when, and with whom is what will matter the most going forward because then worse case scenarios will need to be taken into account by everyone.
https://x.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1907591081731956861/photo/1