Yes, I agree with you, and currently the thesis I also most support is that December 2024 was particularly a strong month.
- Consumer spending was up 0.7% m/m in December, one of the strongest for 2024, and similar to December 2023.
- Retail sales also ended the final months of 2024 very strong, also a 0.72% m/m in December.
So, yes, I will only take this more seriously if we see a continuation of this weakness in coming months.