This topic covers Sixt’s Q4 2025 earnings. A preview of the results will be posted here ahead of the earnings release. A full summary of the preview is available in the Notion:
Earnings date: March 4, 2026
Time of Earnings release: 7:30 CET
Time of Analysts Call: Unknown
I am cautiously positive on Sixt’s Q4 2025 earnings. My estimates (Sixt’s Valuation Model – Google Sheets) incorporate resilient travel demand in Europe, the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the car rental market, FX headwinds, pricing trends, Sixt’s premium positioning, e.t.c. However, given continued macro and demand headwinds in the U.S., I currently rate the shares as Hold. Here is a description of my bullish and bearish points.
Bullish arguments
Travel demand in Europe was strong in Q4 2025: According to air travel data from IATA, ACI and projections by the European Travel Commission, air travel in Europe was remained strong during the quarter. For instance, according to ACI, passenger airport traffic in Europe rose 6.1% y/y in Q4 2025, a sequential improvement from the 3.9% growth witnessed in Q3 2025 (Insights on travel demand-Google Sheets). Similarly, Sunny Cars (a European Car rental company), saw the highest bookings in history during the November 2025-January 2026 quarter (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Car rental pricing was stable in Europe in Q4 2025: Sunny Cars said their average price for a rental car rose to €446 per booking in the first quarter (November 2025-January 2026) from €437 in the previous year (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion). Similarly, Rental car prices were about 17.4% higher than a year ago during the December holidays in Germany, according to billiger-mietwagen.de (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion). Avis and Hertz also witnessed pricing growth of 11% and 1% y/y, respectively in Q4 2025 (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Germany’s economy rebounded in Q4 2025: Germany’s GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q4 2025 compared to flat growth in Q3 2025 (Forum post). Sixt’s German revenue was started to witness a rebound in Q3 2025 and the positive development in Germany’s economy in Q4 2025 supports further rebound (Sixt’s Valuation Model-Google Sheets).
Depreciation tailwind in Europe: Sixt completed the sale of vehicles that were impacted by weak used car prices in Q1 2025 (forum), hence I expect depreciation of rental vehicles in the region to decline further.
Travel to USA is expected to rebound in 2026: European Travel Commission forecasts Americas inbound passenger travel will grow 4.6% y/y in 2026, up from around 1.9% in 2025 (Insights on travel demand-Google Sheets).
Travel to Europe is expected to be stable in 2026: European Travel Commission forecasts Europe inbound passenger travel will grow 6.2% y/y in 2026, up from around 5.2% in 2025 (Insights on travel demand-Google Sheets).
Used car pricing in USA is expected to grow in 2026: There was weakness in used car pices in USA in Q4 2025. Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 3.7%, 0.3% and 0.4% m/m in October, November and December respectively (Forum Post). However, Avis and Hertz are starting to see improvements and Manheim used vehicle value index expected to end the year roughly 2% higher than in December 2025 (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Sixt’s premium positioning: Sixt’s 57% share of premium vehicles could help it withstand some macro pressures better than Avis and Hertz (forum). For instance, according to Advito Global Air Price Index, air prices for business class developed better than that of economy in North America in Q4 2025 (-1% versus -3% for intercontinental and +5% versus +4% for domestic and regional) (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Bearish arguments
FX headwind: I expect FX to be the major headwind for Sixt in Q4 2025 and potentially throughout 2026. I estimate FX headwind in the range of 7% to 9% in Q4 2025 and 9% to 11% in Q1 2026: FX Impact-Google Sheets.
Travel demand in USA was impacted by government shutdown: Avis and Hertz flagged reduced travel demand in Q4 2025 due to government shutdown. Government shutdown led to FAA flight reductions and air traffic control disruptions. Avis said commercial rental days went from mildly down in October to down 11% in November (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Vehicle recalls in USA in Q4 2025: In Q3 2025, Sixt flagged vehicle recalls in USA as one of the headwinds, citing that vehicle recalls saw a record of 8.5 million (Q3 2025 Sixt Earnings-Forum Post). Avis and Hertz recognized further recalls in Q4 2025, with Hertz booking $20 million in cost from additional fleet to compensate for the recalls (Q4 2025 Sixt Earnings-Notion).
Rising fleet expenses: Sixt’s fleet expenses are growing faster than revenue, driven by repairs, maintenance and reconditioning costs (Sixt Valution Model-Google Sheets).
Here are analysts estimates for Q4 2025 and FY2026:
