Based on Tinuiti report, I expect Alphabet’s Q2 2025 advertising revenue to grow 8%-9.5%, topping analysts estimate of 7.7% or $69.6 billion. Over the most recent five quarters, Alphabet’s advertising revenue has underperformed Tinuiti Google search ads spend by 1.5%.
My bullish stance is also supported by other positive developments during the quarter; including resilient ad spend despite tariff uncertainty, as evidenced by Omnicom Group and Publicis reporting revenue above estimates; Magna upgrading its ad spend forecasts; and positive advertising checks by analysts.
Key insights I’m watching in Alphabet’s earnings include:
- Trends in advertising spend amid tariff uncertainty: Whether ad budgets remain resilient could offer a read-through for Meta’s ad business as well.
- Progress in AI monetization and advertiser adoption: Insights into how advertisers are using Google’s AI tools may help assess Meta’s positioning in AI-driven ad solutions.
- Capital expenditure (CapEx) projections: Alphabet has guided for $75 billion in CapEx for 2025. Any upward revision gives Meta a reason to keep investing. A downward revision might raise concerns among Meta investors about broader pullbacks in tech spending.
- Commentary on the DOJ antitrust case: A confident or bullish tone from Alphabet may imply optimism for platform companies facing regulatory scrutiny, including Meta’s own FTC case.