This topic discusses Match Group’s Q2 2025 earnings. A preview of the earnings results will be published here. You can find a full summary of the earnings preview and results in the wiki:
Earnings date: August 5, 2025
Time of Earnings release: 4:00 PM ET
Time of Analysts Call: 5:00 p.m. ET
I am cautiously bullish on Match Group’s Q2 2025 earnings. My estimates take into account continued decline in Tinder paying users, strong performance at Hinge, FX tailwind, raised guidance at Bumble, resilient ad market during the quarter, and revenue guidance beat in the last five quarters.
Here is a description of by bullish and bearish sentiments:
Bullish arguments:
Updated guidance at Bumble: On June 23, 2025, Bumble raised its Q2 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $244 million to $249 million, up from its prior range of $235 million to $243 million, signaling improved business prospects during the quarter.
FX tailwind: Match Group generates more than 55% of its revenue outside the U.S. As a result, the recent strengthening of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar should provide a tailwind in Q2. Management has guided for a 1% FX tailwind this quarter. However, it has a history of misestimating FX impact; in Q1 2025, it overestimated the FX headwind by 20%. Given this pattern, I expect the actual FX tailwind in Q2 to come in slightly above the 1% estimate.
Tailwinds from restructuring measures: New CEO Spencer Rascoff has centralized some functions and reduced the workforce by 13%. Management expects these changes to generate $45 million in cost savings in 2025 and $100 million annually starting in 2026.
Strong performance at Hinge: Hinge continues to deliver strong performance, with its revenue growth largely offsetting the decline in Tinder’s revenue.
Price optimization: During the Q1 2025 earnings, Match Group management stated that they would raise prices if certain factors negatively impact operating performance. This suggests they still see room to increase prices without triggering significant user churn.
Ad spend resilience during the quarter: Q1 2025 indirect revenue rose 30% due to strong spend by Match Group’s advertisers. While management noted that they don’t expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters, insights suggest that ad spend remained resilient during Q2.
Mid-point guidance beat in the last five quarters: Match Group has beaten its midpoint and lower-point guidance by an average of 0.13% and 0.72% respectively in the most recent five quarters.
Bearish arguments:
Continued decline in Tinder users: Tinder continues to lose paying users due to a combination of product fatigue, shifting user preferences, and competitive pressure. Management does not expect this trend to reverse until new product initiatives begin gaining traction.
Limited near-term tailwind from new products: In my view, the benefits of Match Group’s AI-driven product strategy are unlikely to materialize meaningfully before 2026. This view is supported by a recent Bloomberg Intelligence survey, which found that the company’s AI features have yet to resonate with Gen Z.
Execution risks are high: Rascoff is new in the role. The organizational changes he has implemented may take time to pay off and could cause internal friction.
Here are management’s and analysts’ expectations for Q2 2025;
Management Guidance for Q2 (Revenue): $850 million to $860 million (-1.6% to -0.5%) Management Guidance for Q2 (adjusted operating income): $295 million to $300 million (-3.7% to -2.1%) Analysts’ Estimate for Q2 (Revenue): $854.5 millionn (-1.1%) Analysts’ Estimate for Q2 (EPS): $0.58 (+20.8%)
Recommendation
Given the execution risks surrounding Match Group’s turnaround and the continued decline in Tinder’s paying users, I have a Hold rating on the stock. In the upcoming earnings call, I’ll be watching closely for updates on the product offensive, trends in Tinder’s payer base, and early signals from Rascoff’s restructuring efforts.
