Note: Numbers are rough guestimates. I lacked the time to calculate different scenarios based on the data points that we have.
Our expectation for Q2 2023 Meta Platforms Earnings is positive.
All data points we are seeing are positive.
Social Media spending predictions have been revised up
Tinuiti reports which have been very insightful in the past, show a strong increase in Meta Platforms ad spent and strong impression gains
Alphabet had a revenue beat
Analysts cite increased reels usage and the personal reels and advertising experience stays very positive.
Additionally, there is a potential to see the first effects of cost cuts and the overall speed of iteration and improvement at the company feels strong.
On the downside, there is always a risk of a “Sell the news” event, which means people take profits even on good numbers, but I think the probability of this happening is low.
Additionally, expectations are high, but probably not high enough and there might be critical questions about Threads which slowed down significantly.
Given that Threads is not of critical importance I don’t expect this to be a risk either.
The largest risk at the moment is probably something that is not foreseen by us and we run a risk of getting complacent with so many good data points. A symptom of this is that I lacked the time to calculate different scenarios based on the numbers we have (e.g. Tinuiti report, usage, CPM, etc.) to reach higher convictions on guestimates.
