Following the weak Atlanta Q1 GDP Forecasts:
@moritz this could be interesting to you, since its kind of in line with Ed Yardeni assessment
Based on research from Goldman’s Manuel Abecasis it appears everyone can relax a little bit about the huge negative GDP print from the Atlanta Fed (which is mostly, but not entirely, due to the jump in goods imports) as most of the $31bn increase in the trade deficit was a $25bn surge in gold imports as traders furiously moved gold to the US to avoid market dislocations in the event of tariffs on settling gold contracts.
If correct, that portion of the increase in imports has no actual GDP impact (the BEA excludes gold from their calculations according to Goldman, and even if they didn’t it would be added to inventories (as will other “front loading” which will be a positive offset to the negative from the imports and end up netting out in the actual report).
The rest of the GDP slowdown Goldman says is from cold weather, residual seasonality and normalization from an “unusually strong pace” in the second half of 2024. FWIW they say their tracker shows a 1.6% GDP at this point and they are looking for 2.2% when it’s all said and done.
