Q1 GD1 Forecasts Update
Atlanta Q1 GDP forecast (is not a subjective projection, is a mathematical model based on economic data released during the quarter) is at -2.8% for Q1.
I have not seen this number this negative for a long time.
Trade uncertainty weighing on imports and the economy since net exports are the primary drag with data until now. Companies bringing forward demand due to expectations of tariffs increasing.
But other components not showing as much strength either
I expect the final number not to be as bad as this current forecast (strong holiday season affecting comps, weather events in jan, and imports brought forward that should stabilize more in upcoming data), but it is definitely not painting to be as strong as a quarter as the ones we saw in 2023/2024.
The economy does seems to be decelerating a bit currently due to all the uncertainty, and for a market that is still pricing very high expectations in growth (10% earnings growth), could lead to a continuation of a correction if this expectations continue to come down. And will continue to weigh on cuts expectations, and lower yields
