I think someone should look into that topic and report on the likelihood of any escalation esp. with Iran which seems to be close to possess weapon grade Uran.
If the conflict spirals out of control one also needs to ask what this could mean for the likelihood of an China-Taiwan war or how it might affect the Russia-Ukraine war.
I originally thought that the conflict would likely be contained and small solidarity attacks from the Hisbollah in Lebanon was more of a way to deescalate then escalate.
I still donât understand the strategic rational of Hamas though and think we should take the topic more seriously given El-Erianâs warning about a potential escalation.
Hezbollah, a Lebanese armed group that receives direct funding and instructions from Iran has vowed to support Hamas in the war. Hezbollah claims to have 100,000 fighters and is estimated to have 150,000 missiles and rockets. The U.S estimates that Hezbollah has received hundreds of million dollars in funding from Iran over the years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4izE9DIcjhQ&t=12s
This twitter account is reporting all new events around it mostly live, including what could be fake or not. In case you want to follow. https://twitter.com/sentdefender
Did you see any good analysis about the likelihood that the conflict would escalate and involve Iran at one point @Magaly?
Here is a video of former defense secretary Espen saying he cannot imagine that at some point in time Iran would not have to be addressed with measurements ranging from more sanctions to target strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
I am definitely not good an understanding much about geopolitical issues. But I saw this video from Iam Bremmer, which I found very helpful, explaining that what he worries about the most at the moment is that Israel makes bad mistakes in its reaction to the attack from Hamas, and that these mistakes or their reaction could lead to a greater war in the Middle East.
He says he contracts the reaction from this event similar to what happened after 9-11. And back then even the US made terrible mistakes, but the US had a much better position than Israel today.
He is very concerned about hearing from Israelâs defense minister language.
But he thinks Iran was probably aware, but did not order this. And that Iran for now is most likely in the same mindset as the US, to not escalate this, due to the global impact this will have on the economy. But also said this not with very high confidence.
Things to watch
Lebanon and Hezbollah, if scalation were to happen, probably would start here
What happens with the hostages
If Israel is able to put together a unified national emergency government to make better and wiser decisions
Detailed operational video about the Gaza-Israel conflict. The video claims that Hamas has around 25,000 fighters and has likely been preparing for an expected Israel ground invasion long in advance. (Min 27:30)
That explains why Israel may want to continue aerial attacks and destroy Hamas infrastructure for a certain period before going in.
I believe the harder it is for Israel to fight Hamas in Gaza the lower the chances that Hezbollah feels obliged to enter the conflict in order to âsaveâ Hamas.
From what I have heard so far, more sanctions against Iran cannot derail its support for Terrorism and no one wants a war with them.
âYou could probably ratchet up those sanctions a little bit, but as we recall, when sanctions against Iran were at an even higher level, prior to the nuclear accord that President Obama negotiated, they were still able to support all these proxy forces all over the Middle East,â said Max Boot, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations.
âAre we going to go to war with Iran? I donât think anybody wants that either. So the problem with Iran is thereâs no good options, which is why their strategy is so effective and so fiendish because they can lash out and itâs not clear what we do in response.â
Here are opinions of Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, regarding Iranâs position on the war;
He doesnât see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened.
Takeyh doesnât see direct war between Israel and Iran.
His guess is that the northern front will remain âstabilizedâ
I donât think this is developing in the best way.
Apparently ground invasion has been pushed to next week due to bad weather, but it was planned for this weekend.
Iran sent a message to Israel on Saturday stressing that it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel war, but that it will have to intervene if the Israeli operation in Gaza continues, two diplomatic sources with knowledge of the situation told Axios.
Irans foreign minister warned about a possible imminent preemptive attack on Israel in live TV.
He states that all options are on table for Hezbollah and that Israel wouldnât stop at Gaza and therefore Gaza must be defended from a ground invasion.
My Assessment: I think Iran wants to raise the stakes for Israel and possibly prevent it from entering Gaza. Additionally, it wants to demonstrate solidarity with its Ally. To me it is unclear if Iran or Hezbollah would indeed enter a war with Israel and to which level they would commit to it. I think one possible scenario could be increased attacks from Hezbollah in a show of solidarity to Hamas if Israel enters Gaza but stopping short off actions that would provoke a massive response from Israel.
Analysts seem to agree that it would take Iran months to assemble a nuclear weapon but enriching uranium could be swift. There is also a consensus that Iran might use the Israel-Gaza war as deterrence to continue its nuclear program. Hence; if the war continues for 6 to 12 months, Iran may finally get a nuclear weapon, which they could use if its proxies in the region lose the war.
Prospects of a wider escalation in the middle east are looking more dangerous than ever. For now my basecase scenario (70%+) remains non escalatory but we need to have a deeper look as tensions are starting to increase and the risks are higher than ever.
What happened?
On december 25 general Sayyed Razi Mousavi was killled in an targeted airstrike south of Damascus, Syria. He he has been described as Iranâs âmost influentialâ commander in Syria [1] which is emphasized by Iranâs Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei leading his funeral. [2]
On januar 2 Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon through an airstrike which killed 5 other officials. He was Hamas deputy leader and second in command. As a consequence Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah vowed revenge. [3]
Israel has a policy of not confirming attacks beyond itâs soil but it is highly likely that it is responsible for those attacks.
On january 3 two bombs killed 95 participants of Qassim Suleimani memorial in Kerman, Iran. This tactic of using two delayed bombs is a tactic commonly used by terrorist groups like IS who is active in Iran. [4] No major military or political figures have been present at the memorial. [5] There have been speculations that this attack could try to draw Iran deeper into the conflict or could have been an inside job. Iranâs Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised a âharsh responseâ.
Assessment
From what i heard Iran has no large interest entering the conflict as this could be regime threatening. Hezbollah should also not have an interest entering the conflict given itâs weak prospects of achieving a positiv outcome and Lebanons economical crisis.
That said both parties will loose prestige and deterrence if they tolerate targeted high profile killings in their zones of influences. They could therefore feel pressured to have a certain kind of response.
I think it is very unlikely that Israel is behind the latest bombing in Iran given that it usually uses very targeted attacks on leading figures and would avoid attacks on the Iranian public in order to continue exploiting the divide between the Iranian public and the regime.
Instead, dangerously the bombing which is the deadliest since 1979 increases pressure on Iran to react and could serve as a pretense and justification for a wider escalation.
It needs to be seen who they deem responsible after they conclude their investigation and how they will react.
Hezbollah seems to want to continue refraining itself from a full-scale war with Israel. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Secretary-General said while condoling Al-Arouri that they have been losing many fighters in the south of Lebanon because they have been calculating their move carefully in order not to give Israel any reason for an all-out war.
Unlike at the start of the war, Hezbollah has now lost an advantage in the conflict. Gaza has been weakened; hence a full-scale war with Israel, will result in diversion of Israeli resources from Gaza to the South of Lebanon.
Today, ISIS claimed responsibility for the Iranian twin bombings. ISIS claims that two suicide bombers carried the attack, which is different from Iranâs claim that the attack involved two bombs triggered remotely. The ISIS claim looks more appealing given that the attack was aimed at civilians and that a source told IRNA that the explosion âwas the result of a suicide bomberâs actionâ.
Assessment
Unless Israel carries out targetted attacks on Hezbollah leadership, I think itâs unlikely that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will result in a full-blown conflict. However, the chance of miscalculation is still high.
I think the real danger lies on Iran whose president had already pointed a finger on Israel following Kerman bombing. It remains to be seen whether they will accept ISISâs claim or continue blaming Israel for the bombings. If they conclude that Israel is behind the attack, they might be forced to carry out deterrence, possibly through Hezbollah and its other proxies in the region.
I agree that the time window for Hezbollah to draw Israel into a two sided war has passed as Israel largely controls Gaza by now and is starting to withdraw some first troops from the area.
The fact that Israel chose to act on Syrian soil to kill al-Arouri also points to a strong and confident position of Israel.
ââââââ
Apparently Iranian state tv now says that investigators believe based on camera footage that the explosions have been suicide attacks. Shortly after this report came out ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
Assessment
Based on everything I saw today I believe the risk of escalation is smaller than initially feared and it is highly likely that there will be no broader escalation esp. with recent evidence when it comes to the bombings.
Tensions have risen in the Middle East in the past few days after an air strike on a Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed senior Iranian millitary officials. Iran blamed Israel for the attack and vowed to retaliate.
Yesterday, Israeli military disrupted GPS signals, placing Israel residents in Beirut in an attempt to confuse GPS-guided drones or missiles that Iran or its proxies might fire at Israel.
Judging from past events and the current economic situation in Iran, I still donât think Iran will get directly involved in the war. However, the danger of miscalculation remains and itâs worthy to keep monitoring the situation.
