From what I’ve read, the U.S. and Israel are thinking by now that a “significant” reaction from Iran is inevitable.
The strike on the embassy killed multiple officials, including two generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Assessment
My initial impression is that the main purpose of any retaliatory attack is to restore deterrence, but it did not do any further research and it could be worth looking closer into the situation.
I=8
Iran has launched a series of drone strikes that are expected to reach Israel in the next several hours.
“Iran launched unmanned aircrafts from its territory towards the territory of the State of Israel,” IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Saturday. “We are monitoring the threat in the airspace. It is a threat that takes several hours to reach the territory of the State of Israel.”
Assessment
Looks like the situation is getting out of hands, I personally didn’t expect Iran to get directly involved. I will continue monitoring the situation.
Assessment
I am still assuming that Iran wanted to restore deterrence with this attack and has not intention to escalate further. The fact that 99% of rockets and drones could be shut down in such a massive attack with 300 attacking vehicles might be embarrassing to Iran.
Now it is the Israelis that can decide how they want to proceed further.
I heard stories of Israeli hawks vowing for an attack of Iran because this gives Israel and opportunity to strike back and hit e.g. Irans nuclear facilities.
I think and hope that Israel’s reaction will be moderate enough that it does not force Iran to escalate further.
Not sure how serious or confirmed this is at this point. But could be the beginning of Israel response, and not a good one to hit towns with important nuclear facilities?
Markets as expected are reacting to the news currently.
The prospect of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah stands between 20 and 50%, according to people Bloomberg News reporter Paul Wallance has spoken to.
Scenarios could range from a limited operation of Israel in Lebanon to a full war.
Assessment
I am assuming that even an escalation would not be threatening to the world given Irans internal situation and previously signaled desire not to escalate but I did not put more time into the topic and could be wrong.
@moritz have been hearing or reading the last two weeks that the conflict has escalated and that currently, everyone is waiting for a large-scale attack from Iran. Do you think this is more serious, or just like the last attack that did not escalate further?
I did read a Bloomberg articles yesterday which stated that Iran wants to reestablish deterrence not risk all-out war.
It gave me some level of confidence as it indicated that Iran is weighing its options to have a measured response and would not want to respond in a way that forces Israel to hit back.
In addition I’ve read that the attack could come August 12/13 which is a religious mourning day for Israel.
That said I am not actively monitoring nor researching the situation currently.
There is a psychological danger to become complacent to a threat if it existed for a long while without ever something happening.
We certainly need to be careful not to fall into it.
If you come across any worrisome information or think I am underestimating the risk at this front it would be very important to post it here and maybe even notify me in person.
In the future I hope that our real time coverage and assessment of situations like this is going to substantially improve with the help of the community.
I=8
Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a permanent cease-fire.
“Effective at 4:00 a.m. tomorrow, local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” President Joe Biden said.
