September 2024 CPI Expectations
Tomorrow expectations are for again a mild month-over-month increase in both headline and core CPI. However core prices are expected to remain stuck at 3.2% Y/Y.
Some developments during the month:
- Wage growth continued to exceed expectations in Q3 2024, remaining stuck at ~4% y/y growth.
- The used car market saw greater stabilization, while new car prices registered only slight declines.
- Food prices surged by 3.07% month-over-month, although the year-over-year increase remained modest.
- Oil and gasoline prices maintained their downward trajectory.
- Home prices continued to rise sharply, while rents, on the other hand, remained negative on a year-over-year basis.
These are the current rate cut expectations ahead of the CPI release. I don’t anticipate the CPI will significantly alter these expectations unless there’s a notable upside surprise. Otherwise, labor market data seems to be the more important factor at the moment
