Headline inflation is expected to have a mild increase in May 2024, however no much improvement is expected in the Y/Y measure, nor on core CPI.
Some developments during the month:
- Lack of progress with wages, which surprised to the upside again in May 2024.
- Oil and Gasoline declined during May 2024 after a few month of increases, being down 6.1% m/m and -0.23% m/m, respectively.
- Food Index prices had the third consecutive month of increases with a 0.9% m/m increase, but still down 3.4% Y/Y.
- Supply chain index remains stable
- Housing prices increased 1.2% m/m during May, reaching 6.5% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.5% m/m, down 0.8% y/y.
- Used car prices continue to decline in May being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices remain unchanged.
- Import prices continued to increase being up 1.3% in May 2024, and up now 1% y/y, after being negative for months.
Specific institutions forecast:
Market rate expectation before tomorrows CPI and FED meeting:
