Alright, thank you for the insights.
I think it is always good to develop an action plan of all tasks, priorities, timelines etc. in smartsheets of how we plan to progress in our understanding of a certain topic/company and where we want to invest research first.
The goal of this research could either be to increase confidence levels in our predictions (on areas in which this is possible) or research new areas that we did not cover before.
I would be personally pretty interested in insights into CO2 regulations given the EU’s aggressive targets, what those could mean financially for Volkswagen, and whether the EU might ease its regulatory stance given that mainstream adoption of EVs is progressing slower than hoped.
One important qualitative factor which I usually try to factor into my predictions of how a company will perform is the trust I have into the management and the ability of the company as a whole to perform against their goals.
In that light, I agree that the efficiency gains of the brand core group look promising and I overall have some level trust in the management of Volkswagen (7/8 out of 10) even though the organization is certainly slower and less agile as a smaller competitor like Tesla. (Maybe 4/5 out of 10)
When it comes to the upgrade cycle i would be interested in more context. How large and important is the cycle compared to previous upgrade cycles? That would make it easier for me to even better understand it’s significance. (Insights/Context could be organized under Volkswagen deliveries and in the Wiki under Volkswagen Product)
Finally i would be very interested in risk factors, tailwinds and scenarios.
Which key factors could cause results to differ materially?
As an example how large would be the impact on numbers in adverse scenarios when it comes to pricing?
I think it would be interesting to calculate a few scenarios that are possible in the Volkswagen sheet maybe in a new tab. This could give us an impression how large impacts could be in case things are developing differently from how we are expecting them to develop.
I would also be quite interested in insights or challenges from others e.g @Magaly on what we might miss or how certain components might develop.