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https://www.finanzen.net/analyse/volkswagen_vw_vz_market-perform-bernstein_research_935841
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Buy, €180: Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Rokossa welcomed the reduction in investment budget to 170 billion euros while adding that judging on the margin targets, a weak first quarter was just as noticeable as an improvement in the coming quarters
https://www.finanzen.net/analyse/volkswagen_vw_vz_buy-deutsche_bank_ag_942115
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Buy, €130-> €136: Berenberg analyst Romain Gourvil expects 2024 to be a challenging year for car makers due to slowing momentum for EVs and pressure on prices. However, he expects rising pressure on labor costs to be offset by declining prices for raw materials and doesnt expect a hard landing for the industry.
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Neutral, €128: JP Morgan cited delivery headwinds at Audi, a slow start to the year at Porsche due to model changes and higher fixed costs at the core VW brand.
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Buy->neutral; €135-> €150: Analyst Stephen Reitman of Bernstein Research still expects a strong rally in automotive stocks ahead. He said valuations in the industry are excessive but far below the long-term historical average level. He is waiting for signs that Volkswagen is finally tackling the bloated investments and research and development costs.
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Buy, €137: Analyst Michael Punzet of DZ Bank expects the measures introduced to improve efficiency to be visible over the course of the year. However, the sluggish demand for used cars especially in Europe and deterioration in economic situation could have a negative impact on operational performance expected in the second half. He also sees the ongoing discussions on ESG issues as an hindrance to share price developments.
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Neutral, €128: Analyst Jose Asumendi of JP Morgan said consolidation is necessary when it comes to Chinese automotive market. His view comes after a week-long investor meeting in Asia.
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Neutral, €136: Bernstein thinks higher tariffs on Chinese cars could deter small brands and force them to shift to other export markets.
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Sell, €100: UBS said the decline in production in the first half of 2024 could indicate that the consensus estimates for automakers except tire companies are too ambitious. Analyst Patrick Hummel expects the margin guidance of automakers to move towards the lower range. He noted that some suppliers such as Continental and Valeo are threatened with profit warnings.
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Analysts say Volkswagen Group and Porsche’s Q2 pre-close conference call was positive
Neutral, €136: Following a pre-close conference call, analyst Stephen Reitman of Bernstein said Volkswagen is still convinced of a slight increase in sales this year adding that the management is banking on some important new vehicle models in the second half. He said management made it clear that VW would have achieved its margin target range without the restructuring charge.
Buy, €150: Analyst Philippe Houchois of Jefferies said Rolf Woller, head of Group Treasury announced a fundamental improvement in business. However, he said this is progressing slowly and is being obscured by the restructuring.
Buy, €108->€109: Goldman Sachs said it expects a more normalized Q2 for Porsche. It pointed out that Porsche should have continued to improve its margin solidly and that the dependence on China has been significantly reduced.
Buy, €100: Analyst Tim Rokossa of Deutsche Bank said in his quarterly report outlook that Porsche has probably exceeded 16% margin. He expects further increase in the average selling price.
Stifel said Porsche’s Q2 operating margin should see “clear improvement” compared to Q1 and that the company confirmed its 15-17% margin guidance for the full year during the call.
Neutral, €110: Analyst Stephen Reitman of Bernstein said Porsche signaled a certain improvement compared to Q1.
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Outperform, €137->€131: Analyst Tom Narayan of RBC pointed out that once the supply problems at Porsche are overcome, the future could look clearer.
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Sell, €100: Analyst Patrick Hummel of UBS said the sluggish demand for EVs is making it hard for automakers to meet their CO2 targets. He doesn’t expect Volkswagen to meet its CO2 targets without massive reduction in prices, which corresponds to negative impact on margins.
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Sell, €100: Reacting to the Handelsblatt report, analyst Patrick Hummel of UBS said he has always been skeptical about the cost-cut initiatives at the Volkswagen Brand. He pointed out that the positive net effects of the cost-cuts could have offset the burden of complying with the CO2 regulations. Hummel added that he sees considerable risks here. He’s also concerned that the level of investments is still high and there was no downward trend in fixed costs in the first-half.
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Neutral, €143-> €127: Analyst George Galliers said he lowered his profit estimates for Volkswagen following the recent earnings and the ongoing restructuring.
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Buy, €120: DZ Bank analyst Michael Punzet said the implementation of the austerity measures by Volkswagen is unclear. He expects the company to lower its 2024 guidance again when it releases its Q3 results at the latest. He also expects a conservative outlook for 2025.
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Buy, €125->€120: Analyst Romain Gourvil of Berenberg said he lowered his Volkswagen operating profit estimates up to 2026 by an average of 10%. He stressed the CO2 risks and praised the strong cash growth. He also praised the high proportion of new models in total sales and pointed out that the favorable valuation hedges on restructuring risks.
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Neutral, €128: Following Audi’s Capital Markets Day, Analyst Jose Asumendi of JP Morgan said that after four sluggish years, the brand is finally turning things around with regard to new models.