Q3 2024 Productivity eases to 2.0% y/y, accelerated 2.2% q/q annualized,
If productivity continues to ease and doesn’t pick up more from here, it will eventually impact our thesis that productivity will have a significant positive impact on growth and inflation.
As it stands, it’s still too early to have full clarity, but I remain skeptical about the extent of near-term gains we can realistically expect. The current annual growth rate of around 2% seems insufficient for me, though it does exceed the average growth from 2007-2019. This suggests it could support a somewhat stronger trajectory than that period, yet may still fall short of delivering robust gains as everyone is expecting.
