My take is that the failed assassination attempt is increasing the chances of Trump winning even further after Biden had a series of weak appearances including the famous and disastrous first debate and refuses to end his campaign despite growing and public calls from within his own party.
If I had to guess, I would say the chances of Trump winning might be as high as 80-90% by now.
The market should favor a Trump presidency as Biden is pushing to raise taxes while Republicans want to keep the Tax cuts introduced under the last term of Trump.
If Trump wins and extends his tax cuts the part on individuals tax alone which would have expired in 2025 make a $4 trillion difference over the next 10 years according to new estimates of the CBO.
In addition Trump a trump presidency should also be good for crypto markets as he changed his stance to endorse crypto and could even lead to a Trump induced rally.
I also think we need to have a close eye on any major consequences for Meta in a Trump presidency.