Trade Tariffs

EU Economic Minister said the EU prefers negotiated solution on trade with US

  • EU Economic Minister Valdis Dombrovskis said the EU would prefer to reach a negotiated deal with the U.S. over the tariffs but will respond with countermeasures if they don’t reach a solution.
  • He added that the EU already offered to buy more LNG from the U.S. and to reduce tariffs on certain goods.
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President Trump says he is NOT considering changes to automobile and auto part tariffs.

  • He also says whenever China wants to negotiate, we’ll talk about bringing down the tariffs. If Xi doesn’t deal, it’s okay, I’ll set a price

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1915164556336287861

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China said there’s no ongoing trade negotiations with the US

  • China said there is no ongoing trade talks with the US and called for an end to “unilateral” tariffs.

    “At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” said Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong.

    “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.

  • This aligns with Bessent’s statement yesterday that talks with China have yet to begin.

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Trump denies it, and says "“Well, they had a meeting this morning… we may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.”

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1915443891916210558

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China is considering exempting some goods from its 125% tariff

  • China is considering exempting some US goods such as medical equipment and industrial goods such as ethane from its 125% tariff, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the discussions.
  • The move is similar to US decision to exempt electronic goods from China from its 145% tariff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-25/china-weighs-exempting-some-us-goods-from-tariffs-as-costs-rise

Trump said he would consider it a “total victory” if US will have 20%-50% tariff on foreign countries a year from now

  • In an interview with Time on April 22, published today, Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him regarding the tariffs, adding that he would not call Xi unless Xi called him first.

  • He said he was not worried during the April 9 bond crisis and that Bessent and Lutnick did not advise him to implement a 90-day tariff pause.

    “The bond market was getting the yips, but I wasn’t,” said Trump

  • Trump said they have made 200 deals, which will be announced over the next three to four weeks.

  • When asked what he thought if tariffs of 20% to 50% on foreign imports would remain in place a year from now, Trump said he would consider that a “total victory” because the U.S. “will be making a fortune.”

Trump said it’s unlikely there will be another delay in “reciprocal tariffs”

  • Trump said it’s unlikely that there will be another delay in his “reciprocal tariffs”.

  • He added that he would not drop tariffs on China unless it offers “something substantial” in return.

  • When asked what concessions he expects from China, he said he would like to see China open its market to American goods but added that was unlikely.

    “That would be great. That would be a big win. But I’m not even sure I’m going to ask for it, because they don’t want it open, they don’t want it open,” Trump said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-25/trump-sees-trade-deals-coming-in-three-to-four-weeks

Hmm the difficulty I see with those kinds of statements is that we don’t know what is negotiation and what not.

For example the sentence that he would see a 20-50% tariff on foreign goods as a total victory feels like rhetorics to me.

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I concur. On Sunday, Bessent couldn’t say for sure if there are ongoing negotiations with China. He acknowledged that president Trump is using “game theory strategy” in the negotiations.

“In game theory it’s called strategic uncertainty, so you’re not going to tell the person on the other side of the negotiation where you’re going to end up, and nobody is better at creating this leverage than president trump. He’s shown the high tariffs, and here’s the stick. This is where the tariffs can go. and the carrot is, come to us. Take off your tariffs. take off your non-tariff trade barriers. stop manipulating your currency. Stop subsidizing labor and capital, and then we can talk,” he said (min 8:13).

"If there are 180 countries, there are 18 important trading partners. Let’s put China to the side because that’s a special negotiation. There are 17 important trading partners, and we have a process in place over the next 90 days to negotiate with them. Some of those are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries, " he said in an interview with ABC (min 7:25).

“I had interaction with my Chinese counterpart, but it was more on the traditional things like financial stability, global economic early warnings,” he responded when asked whether there were ongoing negotiations with China.

“Well, i think they’re playing to a different audience,” he responded when asked why China would deny there are ongoing negotiations (min 12:56)

“I don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi,” Bessent added. “I know they have a very good relationship and a lot of respect for each other.” (min 12:11).

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Bessent said it’s up to China to de-escalate the trade tensions

  • Bessent said it’s up to China to de-escalate the trade tensions since they sell more goods to the US.

    “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable,” Bessent said in a CNBC interview.

  • He said EU is likely on a “panic mode” due to the strengthening of the euro against the dollar.

    “You’re going to see the [European Central Bank] start cutting rates to try to get the Euro back down,” Bessent said. “Europeans don’t want a strong euro. We have a strong-dollar policy.”

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Trump plans to soften impact of tariffs on automakers

  • Trump plans to soften the impact of automotive tariffs by ensuring that duties on foreign-made cars will not stack on top of other tariffs, such as those on steel and aluminum, and by easing levies on foreign parts used to manufacture vehicles in the U.S., according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • The sources also indicated that automakers could be reimbursed for tariffs already paid.
  • The administration reportedly plans to modify the auto tariff on foreign parts — expected to be set at 25% — by reimbursing automakers an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. The reimbursement would then fall to 2.5% in the second year before being phased out entirely.
  • The move would be made official today.

Assessment

In my opinion, the expected relief is minor. According to Cox, the transaction price of a new vehicle in US was $48,401 in September 2024. Based on this, a 3.75% relief would reduce the cost burden by approximately $1,815. The Center for Automotive Research estimated that the Detroit Three could see tariffs of nearly $5,000 for the parts they import on average for each car produced in the U.S., and about $8,600 on average for each car they import. Therefore, even with the relief, they will still incur a tariff headwind of $3,185 ($5,000 less $1,815) for for the parts they import for each car.

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Chinese Foreign Minister said China will stand up against the US tariffs, ask countries not to cave in to the tariffs

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against caving in to US tariffs.

“If one chooses to remain silent, compromise and cower, it will only make the bully want to push his luck more,” Wang said at a gathering of senior diplomats in Brazil.

“China won’t kneel down,” he said. “Because we know standing up for ourselves keeps the possibility of cooperation alive, while compromise snuffs it out.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/china-rallies-countries-to-stand-up-to-trump-s-tariff-bullying

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Lutnick said they have their first trade deal but couldn’t name the country involved

  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said they have made the first trade deal, but said they are waiting for it to be finalized and couldn’t name the country involved.

    “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” he said.

  • Stock futures rose almost 1% following the report.

China is evaluating initiating trade talks with the US, Chinese commerce ministry said

  • China said it’s evaluating starting trading negotiations with the US.

    “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry said in a statement. “China is currently evaluating this.”

  • However, the ministry insisted that US must correct its “wrong” unilateral tariffs.

    “If the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs,” the statement added.

  • Dan Wang, China director of the Eurasia Group and Alfredo Montufar-Helu, senior advisor to The Conference Board cautioned that the talks will be complex and time-consuming.

  • Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the talks may already be underway, which could result in the tariffs being lowered to a range of 40% to 50% over the next one or two quarters.

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To qualify for the 3.75% reimbursement in the first year, 15% of the vehicle’s value must be assembled in the U.S

White House said the relief on automakers would only apply to automakers whose automobiles account for “15 percent of the value of an automobile assembled in the United States for 1 year and equivalent to 10 percent of that value for an additional year.”

We previously reported, based on the Wall Street Journal, that former President Trump was considering a rule allowing automakers to receive a reimbursement equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made vehicle in the first year, and 2.5% in the second year, before being phased out entirely.

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Beijing is weighing ways to address its role in fentanyl trade, paving way for trade talks

  • Beijing is weighing ways to address U.S. concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
  • The move is seen as an effort to ease tensions between China and the U.S. and potentially pave the way for trade talks.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijing-weighs-fentanyl-offer-to-u-s-to-start-trade-talks-287cf233

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Trump imposed 100% tariff on movies made abroad

Trump on Sunday ordered government agencies to impose 100% tariff on movies made abroad so as to protect “dying” Hollywood.

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Trump said he plans to set new trade deals in the next two to three weeks and clarified that he has no plans to speak with Xi Jinping, contrary to earlier reports

  • Trump said on Sunday that it’s up to him to set trade deals and not up to trading partners.

    “We’re negotiating with many countries, but at the end of this, I’ll set my own deals — because I set the deal, they don’t set the deal,” Trump said. “You keep asking the same question: ‘When will you agree?’ It’s up to me, it’s not up to them.”

    “At some point in the next two weeks or three weeks, I’m going to be setting the deal.”

  • He said he has no plans of talking with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, contrary to earlier reports.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/trump-suggests-some-trade-deals-could-come-as-early-as-this-week

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EU plans to target €100 billion worth of U.S. goods with tariffs if trade talks fail

  • The EU plans to target €100 billion worth of U.S. goods with tariffs if trade talks fail to deliver a deal, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • This would be in addition to the €21 billion in U.S. goods already subject to aluminum and steel levies.
  • EU pointed out that the ongoing Trump’s trade investigations could increase the total value of EU goods facing U.S. tariffs to €549 billion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-06/eu-targets-100-billion-of-us-goods-with-tariffs-if-talks-fail

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US Treasury Secretary Bessent And Trade Representative Greer To Meet With China’s Lead Representative On Economic Matters Later This Week In Switzerland - Sources

  • Bessent And Greer Will Also Meet With Swiss President Ketter-Sutter To Discuss Negotiations On Reciprocal Trade

https://x.com/annmarie/status/1919875839069487562

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